Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 191925
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES DIP 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH HAS
REMAIN PACKED TIGHTLY ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK HAS SUPPLIED SOME
INSULATION AS WELL. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD UP IN THE
35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL FOR
FROST...OTHER THAN IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MN UP TOWARD ALEXANDRIA AND
LITTLE FALLS.

TONIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY HOWEVER...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WINDS LIGHTEN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT IT
MAY NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGER
TO SPREAD INTO. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
SAID AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS MONDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN MID 50S...WHICH IS
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST
PART THRU SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. IT STILL
LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRST...WEDNESDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A SHRTWV MOVING SE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND WHETHER A SHRTWV MOVING NE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE STRONGER AND ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MN. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE DENSER
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE QUESTION REMAINS ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVING NE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WHETHER THE
INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME -SHRA ALONG THE
IOWA BORDER. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS WILL CONTINUE.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BOTH THE EC/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SE
CONUS LEADING TO CONCERNS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC FEATURES.
THE EC IS WEAKER WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND FURTHER EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND AND
DRYING THINGS OUT BY MONDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
IN THE  SE...KEPT SUNDAY THE WETTEST AND CONTINUED A CHANCE OF -SHRA
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS MORE CORRECT IN TERMS OF THE
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE...THE SFC FEATURES WILL BE FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AND UNSETTLED CONDS FOR SUNDAY.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA...AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT LIKELY REMAINING IN A COOLER PATTERN THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NOW THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS HAVE WORKED OUT OF THE TAF SITES. LOOK
FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN WI AND
SOUTHERN MN...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. SOME PATCH FOG
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...BUT
WE WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

KMSP...
NO BIG AVAITION WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
/AND BEYOND/. THE WIND COULD GO VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM
TONIGHT. LOW LYING PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS
OUTSIDE THE METRO...ITS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM AT KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 5 TO 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5 TO 10 KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
     049>053.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023-025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF


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