Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 051148
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
548 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The intensifying surface low that moved through last night is now
just north of Lake Superior in Ontario.  The snow has come to an end
with the exception of a few flurries or very light snow showers
coming out of the low clouds on the back side of the system.
Temperatures have fallen into the teens in western MN and the low
20s in eastern MN and western WI.

The surface low will continue on a northeasterly course, but will
continue deepening through the day.  So, despite it moving farther
away, today is going to remain pretty blustery.  Expect west winds
of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 35-40 MPH.  At this time, we don`t think
winds will exceed Wind Advisory criteria, but will come close to
reaching it, mainly in far southern MN.  Temperatures will hold
pretty steady all days under strong cold air advection.

The far eastern portion of the forecast area (essentially western
WI) will see light snow showers or flurries later today through
tonight, but no accumulation is expected.  A shortwave will drop
through the Dakotas and graze southwestern MN with the chance
for snow tonight, but that looks to remain southwest of our forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The long term period is overall is pretty quiet overall in terms of
precip.  Little in the way of QPF is expected during the period and
the newly arrived cold air will keep temepratures below normal
through the end of the work week.  We will see some moderation of
temperatures out ahead of a fast moving clipper system in the Sunday-
Monday timeframe.

The highly amplified pattern looks to be here to stay for the 7 day
period, with most of that period keeping us on the west side of the
upper trough and under persistent northwest flow.  The clipper
system for Sunday-Monday could bring light snow to the region, but
will race through quickly.  A reinforcing shot of cold air from
Canada looks to follow the clipper into the middle of next week,
which at this point looks to be colder than normal for mid-
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The snow has ended and focus has turned to the wind and the chance
for MVFR cigs to impact parts of the area today. MVFR cigs have
already developed near Alexandria and I expect those to translate
southeast as the coldest air aloft still is on the way. So,
included a couple hour window of MVFR cigs at MSP and STC. Farther
east, the clouds will linger longer, and western MN will be the
first to clear out. Strong west winds will persist through the
period.

KMSP...Lower than normal confidence in seeing the MVFR cigs, but
the fact they are showing up already near AXN does help that. With
the fresh snow cover, the ground will be kept cooler, which will
limit the diabatic mixing to some degree, and hence could
discourage cloud formation.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
Thu...VFR. MVFR possible late with Chc -SN.Wind NW 5-10kts.
Fri...VFR. MVFR possible early with Slgt Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for WIZ024>028.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...SPD



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