Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 131138
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
538 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

As expected, strong isentropic lift on a 40-50kt h85 jet has
resulted in the development of enough lift to generate ample cloud
cover and returns on radar out in western MN. However, the
antecedent low level airmass has been too dry and duration of
forcing too short to actually get much of this activity to reach the
ground and this forcing will pass through in the early morning hours
without much fanfare.

For the rest of today, we`ll spend the morning working mid level
cloudiness off to the east.  This afternoon, mainly sunny skies are
expected, though there is the threat that some stratus may develop
over central MN where the RAP shows 0.5 km condensation pressure
deficits dropping under 10 mb, which also coincides with where the
HRRR is developing lower clouds this afternoon as well. Southwest
winds will increase quite a bit, getting into the 10-15kt range
across MN, but they will also usher in much warmer air, with our
first day of highs near normal this month expected this afternoon.

Despite mild temps and 30+ dewpoints moving up on to the Iowa
snowpack tonight, not expected much in the way of clouds or fog here
as continued southwest winds push that moisture east of area. This
will set the stage for even milder temperatures to come for
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Temperature ups and downs look to mark the long term forecast
period, along with precipitation chances every few days.

At the start of the period, a warm front will be lifting into the
area on Wednesday morning. Could see the typical stratus/fog
scenario unfold, but given brisk southwest winds, mixing should
prove sufficient to bring mostly sunny conditions by mid to late
morning. Therefore have continued to lean toward the warmer end
of guidance for highs, with upper 30s to lower 40s across the
area, and possibly even mid 40s along the Buffalo ridge.

Thursday brings the cold frontal passage and weak lift associated
with a mid level shortwave trough. Attendant light snow is
expected to develop, with only minor accumulations anticipated. `

Cold surface high pressure moves in behind the front on Thursday
night and Friday, with highs retreating back into the teens and
lower 20s.

The weekend brings an amplifying trough over the western CONUS.
The return of southwest flow and mid level ridging will mean the
return of mild temperatures. Highs in the 30s are expected on
Saturday and Sunday. An inverted trough looks to nose into the
region on Sunday, and bring the next round of precipitation. Given
the relatively warm temperatures, a wintry mix of rain and snow
could occur.

The start of the upcoming week looks to remain active and
potentially wet as the baroclinic zone associated with the
southwest CONUS trough remains near to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Light snow that moved through western/central MN overnight is now
off into northern MN and we will be done with precip the rest of
this period. Only question this period is do we see MVFR cigs
develop over central MN. The RAP and HRRR have been playing this
up all night and the LAV is now starting to hint at that
possibility for AXN/STC, so brought a period of MVFR cigs in this
afternoon for those two locations. Tonight, the threat for MVFR
cigs shifts to WI, though the moisture in the low levels looks
shallow and unlikely to produce a cloud layer, but is something to
keep an eye on.

KMSP...Is at least a marginal threat for an MVFR cig this
afternoon/evening, with a height below 017. However, signal for
cigs of that nature continues to look much better to the north.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Winds SW 10-15 kts.
Thu...MVFR. Chc -SN/IFR. Winds NW 15G20 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG



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