Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 111800
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN THIS MORNING AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TROUGH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE MORNING.  SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WORKED
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
DRIER AIR TO THE EAST IS WINNING OUT AS TO EXTENT OF RAIN MOVING
FURTHER EAST.  WILL GO DRY FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOUD COVER
IS ANOTHER PROBLEM...AS SOME DRY AIR WORKED INTO CENTRAL MN...WITH A
FEW BREAKS NOTED.  THIS INITIAL BREAK SHOULD FILL BACK IN THIS
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  THEN MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. WILL
CONTINUE A GENERAL MOSTLY CLOUDY TREND MOST AREAS AS MORE MID CLOUDS
ARE DRIVEN EAST INTO SOUTHWEST MN INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH.  SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY WORK INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN LATER TONIGHT AS FORCING MOVES
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION
TO LARGE SCALE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH OVERALL DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL SUPPLY JUST ENOUGH H7-H6 FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WI. THE 11.00Z ECMWF WAS
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPLY AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE 11.00Z GFS WHICH RESTRICTED THE PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A BIT FROSTY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. LOWS MODERATE A BIT BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS RETURN FLOW BRIEFLY RESUMES. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPLYING LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE AGAIN BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD WEST
CENTRAL WI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AS WESTERN RIDGING WORKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE HIGHS CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO BKN-OVC CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BKN SC THIS EVENING. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FROM KAXN ON SOUTH THROUGH KRWF. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR A TIME FRIDAY
MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN. AT
THIS POINT...KRWF AND KMSP ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE WITH SOME -RA
EXPECTED. STILL...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10-15 KNOTS DIMINISHING
TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS AOA 045. A FEW GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO 18 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KNOTS.
SUN NGT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS W 5 KNOTS.
MON...VFR. CHC -SHRA EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH






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