Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 062135
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THIS AFTN WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MVFR AND -SHRA DEVELOP
IN WESTERN MN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY
BLW 5K IN WESTERN MN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KSTC DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SFC TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST/NW.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS IN THE NEXT 6 HRS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SSW ARND 10-12 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SW/WEST TOWARD
MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE IT. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE LLWS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ABV THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTN.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ066-067-074>076-082>085-091>093.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064-065-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.