Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 220005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a long N-S swath of high
pressure from the southern shores of Hudson Bay all the way
through central Texas. A low pressure center entering west-central
Manitoba has a warm front extending SE, along the western MN
border with the Dakotas, and its associated cold front stretching
WSW through Montana. Aloft, the general pattern is a ridge over
the western 2/3 of the CONUS while a sharp trough is crossing the
Appalachians. More minute features include a small sharp ridge
axis aligned along the western fringes of the extensive high
pressure surface area, followed immediately by a shortwave trough
axis. The main note to make of all of this through the short term:
this will result in no precipitation throughout the short-term
period. What will happen is that the warm front will shift east
across the area tonight, resulting in mid-to-upper level cloud
cover through tomorrow along with a slight increase in
temperatures to a very comfortable 60-65 degree range over the
coverage area. The cold front will then follow tomorrow evening,
producing clearing skies and lows around 40 degrees, a touch
warmer than what we`ll see tonight (in the mid 30s to around 40).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Saturday night through Monday night...The aforementioned cold
front will exit to the east Saturday night, allowing expansive
high pressure to build into the region from the west and remain in
place through Monday. Aloft, a broad longwave ridge will take hold
over virtually the entire CONUS. By late Monday night, a potent
upper level cutoff low will reach the Pacific Northwest, and it is
this feature that will lead to more unsettled weather later on in
the week. Until then, plenty of sunshine will be experienced
across the area but with temperatures that go on a slight decline
through the weekend into early next week. Highs will drop from the
60s felt on Saturday to the low-mid 50s by Monday.

Tuesday through Friday...The upper air pattern takes on a
decidedly different tone starting on Tuesday, lasting through
Friday. While the aforementioned upper low moves into the
northwestern CONUS, the southern stream will become active by
pushing a developing trough axis onshore southern California and
the Baja. The southern stream system will develop a low pressure
center over the Central Plains while the northern stream system
creates a sharp shortwave trough over Alberta province. While each
system doesn`t quite phase with one another, they will work in
tandem to bring a potent low pressure system through the region
Wednesday followed by a secondary cold frontal passage by Friday.
The combination of systems will act to produce small diurnal
ranges of temperatures along with plenty of rain for the area.
Generalized rainfall amounts for the long-range period, most of
which will fall Tuesday-Wednesday, will range from 0.50 to 1.5
inches, highest of which will be in eastern and southern portions
of the coverage area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions throughout. South Southeast winds will eventually
become light and variable overnight, and then northwesterly on
Saturday. By saturday evening winds will again go variable before
they turn back to the southeast again Saturday night.


VFR conditions throughout. Light south southeast winds will
become variable, and then should take on a west northwest
direction on Saturday before going calm again toward evening.
Winds will finally return out of the southeast as the next system
develops over the Dakotas.

Sun...VFR. Wind NNW at 10G15KT.
Mon..VFR. Wind SE at 05KT.
Tue...VFR early, then MVFR/-RA with IFR possible late. Wind E at


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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