Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 271211 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO EXTENSIVE STRATUS
EAST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO REDWOOD FALLS AND ALBERT LEA...
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
WESTERN WI TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO WI AND THIS STRATUS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AS WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SUN AT SOME POINT TODAY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TODAY WAS FORMULATED BY MIXING THE GFS
DOWN FROM 925 MB. THIS SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT THINKING THE
BEST AND IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND THE 00Z SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MILDER START
HOWEVER...THIS ISN`T MUCH OF A STRETCH AND IN SOME PLACES IT MAY
STILL BE TOO COOL - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN MN WHERE THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING EAST TONIGHT MAKING FOR ANOTHER
SET OF MILD LOWS. TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FLOW ALOFT DOES
TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DID
THROUGH A SMALL WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

INITIALLY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR LOFT WORKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH WHICH TRAIL
SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW IN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT WARMING
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
UPPER 30S IN EAST CENTRAL MN FOR NOW. 40S LIKELY TO THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.

THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BY THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING IS
WEAK BUT PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A MIX POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
POPS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOCATING IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK FORCING FORECAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LIFTS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SPLIT FLOW
SCENARIO IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS LONG TERM MODELS. THIS WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AS HE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE COLDEST
PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FLOW AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE...WE COULD CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE DECLINES BY THE AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE CLOUD LAYER THAT BREAKS FORM AND
CIGS QUICKLY IMPROVE AROUND MIDDAY. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PESSIMISTIC AND MAINTAINS THE MVFR CIGS ALL DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID IMPROVEMENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PLAYED IT OPTIMISTICALLY FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER TRENDS BEFORE MAKING DRASTIC CHANGES.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE CIGS DROP TO FL017 FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE IMPROVEMENT IS RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 2-5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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