Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 290402
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS
ALONG THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS CENTERED OVER
I-94...AND ALSO PROLONGED THE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
FRIDAY...AND LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE.

ALL THAT WAS LEFT OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WAS A DECAYING
VORTICITY MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. BECAUSE THIS VORTICITY MAX IS
CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM...IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
ALSO BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MN/WI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE SCATTERED CLOUDS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO BECOME SATURATED
AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON
REINTRODUCED CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATE CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...SO
DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER COLORADO.  AS THIS
SYSTEM TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH DRY AIR ADVANCING THROUGH
THE STATE OF MINNESOTA. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CAME IN WITH A
CONSENSUS THAT THE DRY AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER...WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
COME. THE 12Z EC REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
PRECIP NORTH...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM SHUNTED THE
PRECIP SOUTH...WITH THE GEM BEING BULLISH IN DOING THAT WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN MN. GIVEN THE DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION COMING NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE
STILL SEE SOME PRECIP ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN MN...BUT DID TRIM
POPS OVERALL.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THAT EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. THE
NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES DROPS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. HOWEVER...THE
NEWEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES THIS SHORTWAVE ON A DIFFERENT PATH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA...SO THE POPS ARE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
IN THE LONG TERM WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST
NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEK...BUT A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE I-94 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMSP-KEAU THRU THE NEXT 3-6 HRS WITH THE BAND
EXPECTED TO ERODE TO THE E INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THE
REMAINING TAF SITES LOOK TO BE DONE WITH APPRECIABLE PRECIP...BUT
MAY BE SUBJECT TO MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TO VFR WITH CEILINGS RISING
TO 5-10 KFT. THESE MID-TO-UPR LVL CEILINGS WILL THEN REMAIN IN
PLACE THRU THE DAY TMRW. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATE THIS EVE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN INCRG TO 5-10 KT TOMORROW.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH VFR
LEVELS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK/MORNING RUSH AND THEN REMAIN AS VFR AS
THEY RISE TO AROUND 10 KFT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



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