Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 181140 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
640 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Not much to discuss today and tonight. Showers are heading east
out of the area this morning, marking the beginning of a long
stretch of dry weather. Extensive cloudiness across the northern
tier of the CONUS has also been breaking up a bit overnight, so
expecting to see the sun today although some mid level clouds will
likely remain.

A very weak ribbon of vorticity will rotate around the Canadian
upper low across northern Minnesota tonight. There may be a few
showers associated with it, but that should remain north of the
area so kept PoPs near zero through the short term.

Temperatures will return closer to normal with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The longer term remains mainly dry with below normal temperatures
Thu/Fri period. Troughing over the eastern CONUS amplifies
followed by a warming trend into the weekend.

Initially...models continue to trend a short wave southeast
across South Dakota into Iowa later Wednesday/Wednesday night. The
ECMWF remains the strongest with this wave...and continues to clip
the far south with some light QPF. THe Canadian model is the same.
We will mention some small pops along the far south into Wednesday
night. Cooler air follows this system for Thursday and Thursday

Warming ensues Friday and into the weekend with another small
chance of light rain showers over the far eastern CWA into Friday WAA moves through. Upper level ridging builds over the
northern CONUS with the polar jet lifted north along the
International border for the weekend. The models do bring another
short wave into the region around the Sunday time frame. This is
expected to remain north of the area. Following this...model
trends flatten the upper ridge and drive some short wave energy
east from the trough digging back into the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday into midweek next week. Still looks warm enough for just
liquid P-type over the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Some light fog out there will burn off quickly this morning. VFR
conditions then expected through this evening. Cannot rule out
more fog tonight as winds become light and variable, but dry air
in place should prevent widespread development.

KMSP...No concerns.

Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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