Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 240303
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1003 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE FOR 06Z TAF...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW CLOUDS HOLDING FIRM OVER INVERSION OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AREA.  IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HRS.  EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND WEST IN LOWER
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS INTO TUESDAY.  OVERNIGHT  LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATED POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND
SOME SLEET INTO SOUTHWEST CWA. HIGHS SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL WET SNOW AGAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SPREAD AMONGST THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS TODAY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND HOW THEY INTERACT WILL BE
THE KEY IN PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP AND THE PRECIP TYPE. THE EC
WANTS TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN WAVE MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEPER
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
SEEMS TO BE A VERY POSSIBLE OUTCOME. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TWO DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS INDICATING THAT
SPLIT IS AGREED UPON...BUT THE GFS TRIES TO PHASE THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MORE SO THAN THE EC. THE GFS IS ALSO ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF ARE SLOWER THAN THE EC.
HENCE...AGREED WITH WPC THAT THE EC MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION RIGHT NOW.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CHALLENGE...BUT AFTER ANALYZING THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND SEEING HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST...AND HOPWRF-TS...THINKING THAT THE EVENING
WILL BEGIN AS A MIXED BAG OF P-TYPES IN SOUTHERN MN...BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW WITH INTENSIFYING LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING
TAKING PLACE. CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN SO HEAVY RATES ARE A POSSIBILITY...WHICH COULD PUT DOWN A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW VERY QUICKLY.

THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW WILL PUSH
STRAIGHT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND BRING PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. MAINTAINED SOME LOWER POPS IN OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT
LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND KEEP US BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
AND WE SEE A STRONG WARM SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PEAK OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH MEANS WE WONT BE ABLE TO TRULY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT
TO WARM UP EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS PUSH A LITTLE EAST WHICH COULD MEAN
MORE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES COULD RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 CDT MON MAR 23 2015

CIGS HAVE NOT DECREASED SINCE SUNSET...BUT MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN
PLACE IN SOUTHERN MN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE SNOWPACK. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING...AND VFR CONDITIONS NOW LOOK LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT EAU AND
POSSIBLE AT RNH. WHERE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING...BUT AREAS THAT HAVE
SNOW COVER MAY BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER SW MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE REST
OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING...RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE TERMINAL. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH VFR LIKELY RETURNING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 00Z TUESDAY
EVENING...POSSIBLY STARTING OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/-SN. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.
THU...MVFR AND -SN POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NNW 15G20 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...ADL



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