Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 210426
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The short term forecast revolved around convection both tonight
along the MN/WI border, and also Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Flooding is the main concern. Considering the forecast analogs which
continue to show Sept 22 2010 as a top match, there is potential for
high end significant flooding, which is discussed further in the
Hydrology section of the AFD.

From a meteorology perspective, folks in north central IA are
enjoying a warm fall day with temperatures in the mid 80s and
dewpoints in the 40s, which does not exactly support heavy rain and
flooding. However just to the west low to mid 70 dewpoints are in
place along the Missouri River, and this plume of low level moisture
will be a key ingredient for heavy rain. Another key is the frontal
boundary that will stall out across the region, and allow for
repeated rounds of convection. Lastly, the tropopause height on the
Bufkit soundings exceed 150 mb by Wednesday night indicating a
tropical airmass and potential to over-achieve in terms of heavy
rain and flooding.

Those are the ingredients, and it appears that convection will
develop after sunset along the aforementioned frontal boundary. This
will gradually slide southeast along the MN/WI border, but could
produce heavy rain as it does. There is a secondary risk for severe
wind and hail highlighted by the SPC slight risk area. There should
be a break on Wednesday morning according to the HiRes models, but
with the warm front in place did not go completely dry. Increased
pops again Wednesday late afternoon as storms should begin to fire
in concert with a destabilizing atmosphere south of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

The heavy rainfall and flooding remain the primary weather threats
into Thursday. Depending on overall convective trends during the day
Wednesday...Wednesday night into Thursday still looks to be the
greatest risk periods for excessive rainfall.

We issued the flash flood watch earlier with confidence high enough
to include portions of the cwa through Thursday.

The nearly stationary frontal boundary is forecast to remain across
southern MN and will remain the focus for convection and heavy rain.
PW`s continue to increase into Wednesday night pushing the 2 inch
value across the southeast cwa as a weak surface low lifts northeast
along the frontal boundary. This should focus the heavy rain
potential along and south of this boundary. Forcing from the strong
300hpa polar jet across southern Canada and increased moisture
convergence into system will generate 1 to 3 inch QPF amounts across
the watch area during this period. Totals are pushing 2 to 4 inches
for an average coverage for the region. We certainly have the
potential of locally high amounts...with the 12z CIPS analog once
again pointing to the Sept 2010 event.

As the northern stream trough finally exits to the east into
Thursday...the frontal boundary is expected to sag south over Iowa
...and should decrease the coverage area of any significant
accumulation. The models suggest the western CONUS trough will
advance east into Friday and this will lift the front back north as
a warm front. Later Friday into Saturday. This will increase the
convective chances once again. As the trough travels east into the
weekend...the models diverge on handling the possibility of
developing a cut off circulation. The GFS has been fairly consistent
with a more progressive trough/polar jet across the northern
CONUS...so will continue to move pops east through Sunday night.
Will hold onto some small chance pops to the east for the remainder
of the long term...in case the trough slows more toward the ECMWF
solution...and collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue to push eastward early this
morning across southern MN and adjoining areas of western WI. The
northern edge of the activity will scrape KMSP while KEAU is more
in line for a few hours of off and on TSRA. There is some concern
on the MVFR ceilings developing late tonight across these same
areas. Unified guidance from earlier this evening is beginning to
diverge. However, given the low level moisture increase along the
stationary front across southern MN, decided to hold on to the
MVFR ceilings and visibilities for now. The ceilings may be hard
to lift on Wednesday with the boundary holding steady across the
south. In addition, more TSRA is likely to begin developing by
late afternoon and continuing through the evening. This activity
should be farther north then the current activity with KSTC, the
Twin Cities, KRNH and KEAU having pretty good chances for
SHRA/TSRA Wednesday evening.

KMSP...Much of the ongoing SHRA/TSRA will stay south of the
airfield early this morning, but an isolated SHRA/TSRA cannot be
ruled out especially prior to 21/06z. Still holding on to MVFR
ceilings and visibilities developing toward daybreak and lasting
through the day. Better chance for scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
by Wednesday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...MVFR. IFR likely with SHRA/TS. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
Fri...MVFR possible. Wind E 5-15kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/SHRA possible. Wind SE at 10g15kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

In addition to the flash flood potential, river flooding is a threat
heading into the weekend. Soils remain very saturated, crops are
done taking in water, and river levels are at substantially higher
levels than normal for September (in fact, well above what we were
seeing in June and July). Running the models with current 48 hour
QPF (1.5 to 3 inches) shows a number of rivers in south
central/eastern MN and western WI rise quickly to near flood stage;
however, only an additional inch or two of mean areal precipitation
in any one basin would cause major rises to well above flood stages.
We`ll be closely watching the Cannon, Zumbro, Blue Earth, Straight,
and lower Chippewa (WI) Rivers along with all tributaries to see how
the precipitation develops.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WIZ024-026-028.

     Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for WIZ014>016-023-025-027.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MNZ067-069-070-
     074>078-082>085-091>093.

     Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for MNZ051>053-059>063-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
HYDROLOGY...CCS



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