Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 101853
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
153 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A cool and cloudy day is expected today, with cyclonic flow
fostering scattered showers, along with a potential for isolated
thunderstorms given relatively steep lapse rates during the
afternoon. In the meantime, patches of dense fog will be possible
prior to and shortly after daybreak in locations that cleared out
temporarily near the front. Highs will top out 10 to 15 degrees
below normal, which translates to upper 60s to mid 70s.

Clearing ensues across the Minnesota portion of the area tonight,
which will bring the potential for fog development as lows dip into
the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Again no huge concerns in the extended with some rain possible in
west central/southwest MN Saturday night/Sunday with no other
systems of significance that may bring more widespread rains until
the middle of next week. Temperatures will run on the cool side
through the weekend with highs only in the 70s, but we will start to
warm next week, with 80s becoming more common by the middle of the
week.

Concerns in the long term don`t really start until the
second half of the weekend, with a surface high keeping us mild and
dry Friday and Saturday. This weekend, we`ll see another shortwave
work around the upper low centered near Hudson Bay. This wave will
be rather diffuse with a positive tilt, working south across the
Canadian Prairies Friday, east across the Dakotas on Saturday, then
across southern MN for Sunday. Forcing with the upper wave looks
weak, with no surface reflection of the wave expected. In addition,
mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km and surface dewpoints in the 50s
will limit instability build up. It all adds up to it looking dry
this weekend, with a cloudy Sunday as mid/upper level clouds work
across the area with the shortwave.

Next week, upper level shortwave energy will begin pouring into
western Canada, which will work to flatten and push the western
ridge east. That ridge will be working across the upper MS valley
during the first half of next week, keeping us dry. As we make the
transition to the west side of the ridge and more zonal flow, models
continue to indicate a boundary working across the region
Wednesday/Thursday. Although all of the guidance shows a boundary
working through this period, there is still a good deal of spread in
terms of timing, strength of forcing, and the degree of moisture
return ahead of it, but with dewpoints looking to return to the 60s
and temperatures into the 80s, we`ll have the potential to have a
bit more instability to work with for this go around.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

VFR/MVFR conditions this afternoon with a few scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Precip should taper off after
sunset, and should see skies clear across western MN, with some
lower clouds hanging on across eastern MN, and especially western
WI. Areas that clear out are at more risk for fog, and areas that
don`t clear could could see MVFR/IFR clouds overnight. VFR
conditions should return Friday morning.

KMSP...
A few showers are possible this afternoon at KMSP. There is also a
small chance for a thunderstorms, but at this time confidence is
too low to include thunder in the TAF. Should see skies start to
clear overnight, with VFR conditions expected to last through
Friday as well.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Slight Chc SHRA/TSRA afternoon. Wind ESE 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB



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