262
FXUS63 KMPX 081121
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected this afternoon
  and tonight across southern Minnesota. Locally heavy rain and
  a few strong or severe storms are possible.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through
  early next week.

- Temperatures will remain near or above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Skies are mainly clear early this morning and winds are light.
Areas of dense fog have developed over WI and in Kanabec and
Chisago counties in MN. If it continues to expand during the
next hour or two, may need to consider a Dense Fog Advisory
through early morning.

Ample sunshine early today will allow temperatures to warm into
the 70s. A complex upper level pattern with several lows
spanning the northern CONUS will lead to several areas of
convective development today. A low approaching the mid
Missouri Valley will set up a trough axis northwest into
southwestern MN and eastern SD this afternoon. Steep mid level
lapse rates with pockets of 7.5 C/km and strong surface heating
will lead to SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop after 20Z near the trough axis and
may form clusters into tonight. Shear is somewhat lacking per
forecast soundings, but the most vigorous updrafts could still
produce marginally severe hail and strong winds. Locally heavy
rainfall is also possible. Thunderstorms are possible farther
north and east late this afternoon, but low level convergence is
better near the trough axis which is where the best coverage
will be. The low will push east overnight and convection should
wane gradually through tonight and into early Thursday.

Quiet weather follows Thursday afternoon through Friday morning,
then a clipper will slide southeast to the Great Lakes Friday
afternoon and Friday night. A pocket of steeper lapse rates will
accompany the wave during peak heating Friday afternoon which
will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across
central and eastern MN into WI.

This weekend and early next week will feature several small
scale disturbances traversing the region, each with low
predictability. Any of these will bring more low shower and
thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the period
with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
Some 80 degree temps are possible Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Clear skies this morning will give way to increasing mid level
clouds later this morning and afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop mid to late afternoon
near RWF and MKT, so continued the PROB30. Winds will shift
easterly this morning and increase to around 10 kts.

KMSP...Remaining quiet through much of the period. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon south
and west. A few could develop nearby, but not confident enough
on the timing or coverage for a mention yet in the TAF. Light
and variable winds will become east around 14Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NE 10G20 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G35 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Chisago-
     Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Polk-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff