Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 130420
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MAIN OUTFLOW AND SFC FRONT IS NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH A
PERSISTENT E/ESE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN/WC WI. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE SH RA/TS RA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE IA
BORDER WITH ONLY A CHIC ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
SB CAPES/SABIN`S ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE IA/MN TO KEEP SR CHIC
NIL IN OUR CWA.

A SECONDARY SHREWD MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA AND FAR SE SD TO
CONTINUE CHIC/LIKELY POPS ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. THICKNESS VALUES
ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH CAA AND NORTH/NW FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

LIGHT RAIN WILL END ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
IOWA SCOOTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY BUT COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH A RATHER
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20 MPH RANGE.
LOWS/HIGHS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD OFFERS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD
BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS AND GEM FORMER WOULD
DEVELOP A VERY WET PATTERN OVER US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MUCH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT DP/TD
OF THE SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOW THAT BOTH SETS OF
SOLUTIONS HOLDING FIRM. IN FACT...THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
HAS HAD ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MSP IN BUFKIT FOR 7 RUNS IN A ROW.
OF THOSE 7 RUNS...FIVE HAVE HAD 6 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HENCE... THIS IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE COLD SEASON WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. IT
MAY NOT BE OVER YET.

THE CULPRIT TO THIS CHAOS IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS TIED TO
A SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTH...A SHORT WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM COMING IN THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. THE
GFS PHASES THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN WORKS ON PHASING THIS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM BY FRIDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GEM IS A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST WITH THIS IDEA BUT VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND ALLOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PASS BY WITH THE
CANADIAN SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. THE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DON/T OCCUR UNTIL THESE FEATURES REACH
THE APPALACHIANS. KNOWING THE DIFFICULTY THAT THERE IS WITH
PHASING...A BLENDED SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES YIELDED CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN
RAIN. SMALL POPS LINGER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO LOW PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 5 HOURS WILL BE THE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW WITH CIGS...BUT DO EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE EAST OF KMSP. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CIGS TO
ENSURE WE DO NOT SLIP ANY LOWER. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN WI...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT. WILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF OUR AREA AND REALLY GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE
...EXCEPT FOR THE WI TAF SITES. ON SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD CHICAGO. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT OUR TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STRONG THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA.


KMSP...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 06Z TODAY AND
INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE
AFTER 06Z AND THEN LIFT TO BE LOW END MVFR CIGS AFTER DAYBREAK AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST TO
30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FIELD AND HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-120 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5 TO 10 KT...BECG E/NE BY EVENING.
WED...MVFR. WINDS E 10 TO 20 KTS...BECOMING N-NE.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ025-026-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DRL






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