Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 261819
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS...THIS ONE IS PRETTY QUIET.
THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF RAIN...SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...SAUK CENTER AND
LITTLE FALLS AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABOVE FREEZING...SO IT ISN/T OF MUCH CONCERN. PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUES IN OTHER PORTIONS OF MN AND WI WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PULL QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING ITS APPROACH A BIT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SEND A BAND OF RAIN NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS
BAND CAN PROGRESS...AND HAVE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT A BIT
KEEPING ANY MENTION WELL SOUTH OF I-94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND WILL EJECT THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND ITS OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS. WE ALSO HAVE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO OVERCOME AS
WELL. WE FOLLOWED A 300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST TIMING WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS LEAVES WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT WE DO
WORK A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BEST LI`S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN
WEDNESDAY...SO WE CONTINUED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-
SNOW MIX...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER
SUPPRESS ANY REAL FORCING OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS EJECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANOTHER LONG DURING PRECIPITATION EVENT...LIFTING A CLOSED LOW
INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT A
COOL PATTERN TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THROUGH THIS EVE...
EVENTUALLY REACHING VFR LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THOUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT...BKN/OVC UPR LEVELS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. FOR MN TAF SITES...LOWER BKN/OVC
DECKS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROUGH
SHIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS. -SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST SITES
THRU 18Z TMRW...BUT KAXN-KSTC-KRWF MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR-VSBY
-SHRA BY THEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 060-080 DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ARND 15G25KT BY LATE MRNG TMRW.

KMSP...SLOW CLIMB OUT OF MVFR RANGE AS VFR CONDS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE REALIZED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. COULD SEE CEILINGS INCRS
ABOVE 1700FT BY THIS EVE...BUT SOLID NE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE 12S
IN PLAY THROUGHOUT THIS SET. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING PUSH WED
MRNG...BUT CHANCES ARE GROWING FOR MVFR -RA TO DEVELOP BY MID-TO-
LATE AFTN TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY...MAINLY EARLY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



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