Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 210938
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
438 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Today and tonight...Surface analysis this morning puts a low
pressure center in the middle of the Great Lakes region with its
associated cold front extending nearly due south along the IN/OH
border then through the MO bootheel. There is a secondary weak cold
front sweeping through NE MN and much of WI, and this feature looks
to swing through the Great Lakes during the day today. Behind these
features, surface high pressure oriented over the central Plains and
extending northward will slide across the region today through
tonight. Meanwhile, aloft, a longwave trough axis associated with
the Great Lakes low will slowly move east while a longwave ridge
builds over the Rockies, keeping the area within northwest flow
today. Upper level heights will increase slightly today which, when
combined with the surface high, will keep the area mainly clear
throughout the next 24 hours. This will result in not only plenty of
sunshine today followed by clear skies tonight but also an increase
in temperatures. Highs will climb to the upper 60s in western WI
along with highs in the lower to middle 70s in central-southern MN.
Tonight, lows will range from the lower 50s in western WI to the
upper 50s in western MN and in the Twin Cities metro.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Tomorrow will bring a strong warming trend in strong southerly
flow as we remain in between a high pressure area over the Ohio
river valley and a low in southern Alberta. In terms of wind
speed, 20-25MPH winds with gusts in the 30-35MPH range still look
likely.

Surface cyclogensis out ahead of a deeply amplified upper trough
is expected Tuesday to our west with a cold front set to push into
the Dakotas during the day. Ahead of the front, we`ll see
continued warm air and moisture advection as surface dew points
rise into the upper 60s. This will set the stage for likely
thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front Tuesday night
that will push through our area overnight. Generally we do not
expect severe weather with this system but can`t completely rule
it out. Very heavy rainfall in some of the stronger storms is
the more prominent threat as a lack of shear combined with PWAT
values rising to around 1.75" would indicate the potential for
heavy rainfall rates.

The cold front will push through Wednesday morning and will be
followed by another cool down to highs falling back into the
middle 70s across the region. Broad high pressure will work in
behind this system for late in the week, but a shortwave trough
may produce more thunderstorm activity in MN and WI friday night
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Showers have ended and clearing is ensuing. Sct-bkn mvfr level
clouds will threaten WI sites (KRNH and KEAU) early in the
period, but VFR is otherwise anticipated. West/northwest winds
around 5-8kts will persist overnight, and should be high enough to
hinder fog development in most areas.

KMSP...
A few mid level clouds will pass near the site, but vfr conditions
are expected to prevail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Winds SSW 15-17G25 kts.
Tue...VFR. -TSRA possible late. Winds SSW 15-17G25 kts.
Wed...VFR with -TSRA/MVFR possible. Wind SW 10G15 kts becoming W.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS



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