Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 062121
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF SMOKE/HAZE INTO THE REGION
AND ANY FOG THREAT IN THE EAST.

DRY SURGE DROPPING IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT.  THICKER SMOKE MIXED
OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPREADING RAPIDLY
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.  WILL MENTION SOME AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR A
SMOKE FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR NOW.  DRIER
DEWPOINTS WORKING OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.  MAYBE INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER AND MOIST GROUND.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE BENIGN...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINS
DISPLACED WELL OUT OF THE AREA. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCLUDING THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

IN THE MEANTIME...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE
MOVING IN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE FROM VALUES IN THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...TO UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO A SHOT AT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
H85 TEMPS AROUND +25C. CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THAT HOWEVER...SO
HAVE STUCK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD MEAN OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT EXITING INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND SHRA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE A COLD
FRONT/FGEN REGION. THIS SHIFTS EAST EARLY WILL END THROUGH 00Z
TUE. FARTHER WEST...MVFR CIGS SHIFTING EAST...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING. HZ/FU ANOTHER ISSUE AS IT HAS BEEN BLOWN SOUTH OVER
WESTERN AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SMOKE IS ADVANCING
SOUTH...AND MAY CLEAR OUT DISSIPATE OVER THE WEST LATE. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN THE SMOKE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE FOG WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. COULD SEE SOME INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE. WINDS N-NW
AN GUSTY WITH FROPA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
01Z MON. EXPECT VFR TUE.

KMSP...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END THROUGH 20Z-21Z WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH 01Z TUE. MAY SEE A SMOKE
ISSUE INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL LEAVE 6SM HZ FOR NOW. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VFR OVERNIGHT
AND TUE WITH NORTH WIND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE


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