Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 040833
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG SHOWS A CDFNT NOW S
OF MN AND MOVING THRU SRN WI...ESSENTIALLY S OF THE WFO MPX CWFA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED ANY AND ALL LATE EVENING PRECIP IN ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA TO SHIFT WELL SE OF THE AREA AND FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT.
ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT AROUND A SHARP TROF OVER ERN NOAM WILL
MAKE FOR POIGNANT CAA TDA THRU TNGT ACRS THE AREA...AND ALSO AID IN
BRINGING IN CANADIAN HIGH PRES ATOP THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HRS. EVEN WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER...THE NOTICEABLE CAA WILL
DROP MAX TEMPS TDA ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YDA...WITH HIGHS TDA
ONLY HITTING THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. ONLY A MILD BREEZE EARLY THIS
MRNG WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT FURTHER...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO LGT/VRBL TMRW NIGHT WITH EFFICIENT
DECOUPLING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE
COOL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST
FORMATION IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THU MRNG...SINCE
TEMPERATURES THERE LOOK TO DROP TO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE.
THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH A FROST ADVY FOR RUSK...CHIPPEWA
AND EAU CLAIR COUNTIES. GOING WWD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH
NO FROST EXPECTED. CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE N DURG THE
EARLY MRNG HRS THU MRNG BUT ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO
FAR N TO BE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE TO THE MPX CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A
HOT ONE...AND KEPT THE 90S GOING OUT IN WESTERN MN FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT IMPRESS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN IT RETURNS
AS A WARM FRONT...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF
LOW WHICH IS DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO PREDICT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOUCH 90 IN WESTERN MN...AND MID TO UPPER
80S ELSEWHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMPARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MAY
06 2000 WHICH BROUGHT UPPER 80S TO ST CLOUD MN. HOWEVER THE DEWPOINT
SHOULD BE LOWER IN THIS CASE...WHICH FAVORS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHICH DOES WILL IN THESE RUN-AWAY
TEMPERATURE SETUPS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
STILL TRY TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT THIS DECREASES AS THE
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...AND DONT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICAL LIFT TO GET THROUGH THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW SHOULD EMERGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT IS AIDED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THIS WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFT FRIDAYS COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF 04.00 IS THE FARTHEST
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE WARMFRONT
NORTHWARD. CONTINUED WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TIMING OF THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GETS PUSHED BACK WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT COMMON TOMORROW
DURING THE DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH IN TOMORROW EVENING AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KMSP...CLEARING SKIES...VFR THROUGHOUT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...SPD


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