Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 252045
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Tonight and Thursday...Surface analysis this afternoon puts a low
pressure center near the MN/ND/SD triple-point with a warm front
snaking east-southeastward through the Twin Cities metro into
southwestern WI and its associated cold front dropping south to the
TX/OK panhandle area. Aloft, a wobbling upper level low over the
Montana international border is slowly rotating eastward into NE
Montana while several shortwave trough axes swing around the eastern
and southern peripheries of the upper low. KMPX radar has shown a re-
firing of convection this afternoon mainly over the western WI
portion of the coverage area, the area which hadn`t truly been
worked over by morning convection mainly impacting the MN portion of
the coverage area. Destabilization along and in advance of the
surface front plus plenty of low level moisture has led to this re-
development. Storms will likely last for the next few hours in this
portion of the coverage area. Much more isolated storms have also
started to develop in the MN portion of the coverage area and these
storms will likely persist so long as daytime heating is received so
will maintain the higher chances for precipitation in WI with lesser
chances in MN. Chances overall diminish through the night as the
cold front out west makes gradual progress eastward across MN and
reaches the MN/WI border by daybreak Thursday morning. Much of the
day Thursday will remain dry as the cold front stalls out just south
of the coverage area but then then front will start to gradually
lift back north by late in the day Thursday, potentially allowing
another late-afternoon firing up of convection over southern
portions of MN into far SW WI. Not looking for much tomorrow but it
does warrant 20-30 percent chance late. As for temperatures, and
particularly dewpoints, this approaching cold front will not result
in any airmass change in terms of the reduction of temperatures but
it will result in a slightly drier airmass, thus lower dewpoints
going into Thursday. In fact, whereas highs today reached the mid to
upper 70s for much of the area, highs on Thursday will climb into
the lower to middle 80s. With the elevated dewpoints in place
already, lows tonight will only drop to the upper 50s to lower 60s
and be quite muggy. In that light, there is some potential for
patchy to areas of fog but with winds around 5 knots, the low level
moisture may well manifest itself as low stratus rather than fog
through daybreak. Shortly after daybreak, the breaking of the
inversion should allow the lower level moisture to mix out and
present a mix of sun and clouds for much of the day tomorrow.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Active weather continues throughout the period as a parade of
shortwave disturbances traverse through the west/southwest flow.
While a quick glance at the 7-day forecast may give the impression
that the period is going to be a washout, that is not the case.
There will be breaks between showers/thunderstorms, but the timing
will be tricky until closer in time.

The period does however look to start off on a wet note, with both
gfs and ecmwf models ejecting a shortwave trough into the area
from the southwest low, and pushing a surface trough across the
area from Thursday night through Saturday. Much of the area could
see 1-2 inches of rain during this time frame, along with a
potential for severe weather depending on how timing with the
trough/instability plays out. Definitely bears watching.

Sunday looks to have the highest potential to be a dry day, as mid
level riding works in overhead in the wake of the trough. This
will be the case into the Memorial Day holiday, but given the
pattern, cannot go totally dry with the forecast given the threat
for isolated to widely scattered convection.

The next trough will start spreading shortwave energy into the
area on Tuesday, when higher precipitation chances have been
included.

Temperatures remain near to above normal through the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Large swath of showers/thunderstorms continues to shift into NE MN
and NW WI at initialization time. Thus, much of the degradation
from these storms has also ended. However, radar shows another
batch of showers/thunderstorms over SE MN that is lifting N into
western WI. This batch looks to mainly impact KRNH-KEAU, and just
miss KMSP, or at most only give a glancing blow. Therefore, have
kept any afternoon degradations at the WI TAF sites down to MVFR
with the remaining sites as VFR. Partial clearing overnight may
lead to fog with the added moisture being trapped under the
nightly inversion. IFR conditions approaching daybreak Thursday
are certainly possible, followed by VFR conditions by late
morning.

KMSP...Only other aspect to mention is wind direction for the
first 6-12 hours of the 26/18z TAF. Due to the residual convective
boundaries from the morning activity, trying to settle on a wind
direction through the afternoon and evening may prove somewhat
problematic. Generally, winds will remain from the E and SE in
the 5-10kt range, but if a stray storm, even nearby but not
directly impacting MSP, moves through the area then the wind
directions could briefly shift away from SE. Winds will gradually
become S overnight then SE tomorrow while speeds remain in the
5-10 kt range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Chance MVFR. TSRA Likely. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...Chance MVFR. TSRA Likely. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



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