Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 252347
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
747 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

A shield of light to sometimes moderate precip will spread northward
across the CWA late this evening into Sunday morning in response to
ample WAA and low-level moisture transport. A continuous feed of dry
low-level air on easterly winds from Ontario will allow for surface
wet-bulb temps to remain below freezing across the interior through
the night.

Have opted to issue a Winter Wx Advisory for all but Menominee
County overnight through Sunday morning. 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ice
are expected for most locations away from the immediate shores of
the Great Lakes. Along the shores, especially along Lake MI, temps
remaining at or slightly above freezing will limit icing. There is
the potential for higher QPF amounts across the east where low-level
moisture transport is maximized. In fact, a couple lightning strikes
will be possible late tonight into early Sunday with MuCAPE values
over 50j/kg. However, high precip rates will likely lead to more
runoff before icing, and would likely overcome the cooling effect
from the dry easterly flow.

Better forcing via WAA shifts to the east on Sunday morning, leaving
disorganized mid to upper-level forcing over the entire area and
weak isentropic lift across the east. This will lead to isolated to
scattered showers across the west half to numerous showers across
the east half through the day. With temps rising above freezing by
the afternoon across the entire area, the freezing rain threat will
end.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

Split flow pattern will continue across the U.S. and southern Canada
through much of the upcoming week. Once the upper level low moves
east of the Great Lakes early in the extended the weather looks
pretty seasonable and tranquil for much of the upcoming week. With
upper ridging building across the area by midweek persisting into
the later part of the work week any cold air will remain well north
of the Upper Lakes in Canada.

Any remaining precipitation should move east of the U.P. by Monday
morning as upper level system departs to the east. With low level
moisture lingering and light winds...there could be some patchy fog
through the overnight hours Sunday night.

Temperatures for upcoming week will remain around to a few degrees
above normal...upper 30s to upper 40s during the day and 20s to
lower 30s at night.  Ideal conditions for controlled snowmelt where
any snow pack remains.

Significant model differences remain for late in the week (Friday
into Saturday). ECMWF and Canadian models show a little bit more
phasing with northern and southern stream energy moving an upper low
into the Great Lakes by Friday night suggesting a rainy period from
Friday night into Saturday. The GFS maintains separate streams and
keeps a southern stream upper low over the Mid South with upper
ridging holding on across the area through Saturday yielding nice
spring weather for the area. No real confidence in either solution
and will maintain a blended approach in the forecast.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 740 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

Dry conditions and MVFR cigs expected at IWD and SAW this evening
while easterly upslope flow maintains IFR cigs at CMX. A shield of
precip will shift northward across Upper MI late this evening into
Sunday morning, bringing IFR cigs to all sites. FZRA is expected at
KCMX and KSAW, with ice accumulations of around a tenth of an inch.
It is possible that cigs could reach landing mins at KSAW toward
daybreak Sunday. KIWD may remain just above freezing, so ice
accumulation will be limited. IFR clouds and MVFR vis will then
persist through Sunday under a stagnant air mass.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 405 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

ENE to ESE winds to 30 knots will continue through Sunday morning.
The strongest winds will be over the far west as winds funnel
parallel to the shoreline into northern Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Winds for the upcoming week look to remain at 20 kts or less as high
pressure settles across the region.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to
     noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-
     084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kluber
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Kluber


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