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000
FXUS63 KMQT 171136
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
736 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A low pressure passing through the Upper Peninsula today will
 bring with it wind gusts in excess of 45 mph in the eastern
 third and western Keweenaw Peninsula
-Additional rainfall totals of a half inch to inch are expected
 (50+%), highest from Escanaba to Newberry
-Temperatures trend below-normal behind a cold front Thursday
 night bringing low chances for light diurnal showers and
 perhaps a bit of lake effect rain/snow mix for Friday/Saturday.
-Some fire concerns could resurface again Sunday into Monday
 under breezy conditions and a drier airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

GOES-16 WV imagery and radar reflectivity show multiple bands of
precipitation passing through the UP from the southwest this
morning. RAP analysis shows a 994mb low over the Iowa/Minnesota
state line on a weakening trend as it approaches the Upper Great
Lakes basin today. As the low is contrasted with a 1030mb Hudson Bay
high, the enhanced pressure gradient is causing some windy
conditions at some UP and Lake Superior sites. HREF wind
probabilities show near 100% probability of frequent wind gusts over
45 mph for the eastern third of the UP through the early afternoon
hours as well as on the west-facing slopes of the Keweenaw
Peninsula. In addition to the surface gradient, an 850mb LLJ of
around 55 kt is passing over the UP this morning, which BUFKIT
soundings show that some areas may see sufficient mixing to tap into
that jet to some extent. Therefore, the ongoing Wind Advisory will
continue as-is for this forecast package, and if any adjustments are
made, they will likely come after the upcoming 12Z HREF guidance is
available.

As the low pressure passes over the UP today, some dry slots
between bands of precip will cut into precip totals somewhat,
as the 00Z HREF shows a mean of around 0.5 inches of QPF still
to come across most of the UP through early Thursday morning,
with higher amounts closer to 1 inch more likely in a band from
Escanaba to Newberry. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled
out throughout the day in Menominee County as HREF maximum CAPE
values rise to 100-200 J/kg, though impacts should be minimal.
Tonight, expect showers to end from southwest to northeast
starting around midnight and with showers ending nearly
completely by 12Z Thursday as pressure rises behind the
departing surface low. Winds will fall below advisory criteria
in the evening as the low weakens to above 1005mb per the GFS,
significantly slackening the pressure gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Thursday`s post-frontal air mass will be considerably drier and
should result in another seasonably mild day albeit perhaps a bit
breezy as GFS soundings indicate the potential for fairly deep
mixing to 7-8 kft away from Lake Superior which could bring down
west wind gusts of 20-25 mph at many locations. Max temps are fcst
to be generally in the mid to upper 50s and steep low-level lapse
rates could result in high-based cumulus forming in the afternoon.

A reinforcing cold front moves through late Thu into Thu night with
modest cold air advection resulting in steep low level lapse rates
through Friday. Additionally, isolated to scattered rain
showers cannot be ruled out along the front late Thu afternoon
into Thu night, especially across the east half of the UP.
Friday will turn chilly as blustery west winds possibly gusting
as high as 40 mph over the Keweenaw will accompany the colder
air advecting into the area. Again, isolated to scattered snow/rain
showers cannot be ruled out on Friday given the steep lapse
rates fm sfc-10kft. Another surface trough moves through Fri
night shifting winds more northwesterly and bringing perhaps a
better chance for some isolated to scattered light lake effect
rain/snow mix into early Sat across northern sections of the cwa
as 850 mb temps lower to -9 to -10C by 12Z Sat.

Temperatures will stay below normal on Saturday, but a warming trend
begins which will end any further lake effect pcpn potential by
Sat afternoon. Successively warmer days to back above normal
temps Sunday into Monday could maybe lead to fire concerns again
as airmass is dry both of these days (especially Sunday) and
west-southwest winds remain somewhat breezy with gusts at least
15-20 mph. Models indicate the next wnw flow shortwave will
move through Mon night into Tue with the next chance of rain
showers. Given its west-northwest trajectory suspect moisture
inflow ahead of this shortwave will be somewhat limited so only
expect light rain showers at this time Mon night into Tue.
Models and ensembles advertise drier and somewhat cooler
conditions behind this shortwave into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 735 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A low pressure system tracking through the UP today will cause
flying hazards in a variety of forms. Currently MVFR ceilings are
being observed at all TAF sites with CMX briefly in IFR, but
currently the deck at 700ft is SCT. LLWS will be a hazard through
the morning hours as gusty ESE winds at the surface are contrasted
with a LLJ at 2kft. Winds will gradually relax throughout the day
and eventually veer W. Ceilings and visibility at all TAF sites are
expected to fall throughout the day with the majority (50%) of
available model guidance suggesting LIFR ceilings at all three sites
by the afternoon hours with lower visibilities also suggested,
though there is more uncertainty in the visibility categories than
the ceilings. As the low pressure weakens and lifts out of the
region overnight tonight, a gradual improvement of flight categories
is expected, with about 50% confidence of VFR at all sites by 12Z
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Northeasterly gales to 45 kt continue over the far western portion
of Lake Superior early this morning but will weaken to minimal gales
to 35 knots just after sunrise before subsiding blo gales this
afternoon. East-southeast gales of 35 to 45 kts will persist across
much of central and eastern Lake Superior today, strongest over the
north central and east half of the lake. Probabilities of storm
force gusts to 47 kts remain low at less than 20%. Winds fall below
gale force early this evening as the weakening low pressure moves
into eastern Upper Mi later this evening. Generally stable
conditions persist over the lake tonight into Friday morning with
southwest to west winds 20-30 kts. A trough/cold front moving across
the lake late Fri into Fri night with winds shifting northwest could
result in gale gusts to 35 knots late Fri into early Sat. Otherwise
winds back westerly and subside to 15 to 25 kts across the lake Sat
night into Sunday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ001-003-006-
     007-014-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ242.

  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243>246-250-
     251-264>267.

  Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     LSZ162-263.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning
     for LSZ240-241.

  Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LSZ244>246.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ247-248.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-250.

  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...Voss