Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221432
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH SHOWERS/T STORMS BEING
CONFINED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. AS
OF 13Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER ISLE ROYAL IN NORTHWESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MI AT 14Z WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO QUEBEC
/BY ABOUT 00Z/. STILL SEEING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE
EAST THIS MORNING...SO WITH THE FRONT ASSUME THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP THEM GOING FOR NOW. WILL LOSE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THOUGH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER/ISOLATED
AT BEST. MAIN THING WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH STORMS THIS MORNING IS
HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T
STORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW COULD BRIEFLY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON RADAR.

WITH SEICHING DETECTED ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EARLIER
STORMS...UPGRADED THE SWIM RISK TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. WITH STRONG WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE STORMS...FELT THIS WAS
WARRANTED. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KICK WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. ONSHORE FLOW...3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...AND POSSIBLE WATER LEVEL
FLUCTUATIONS WITH ANY SEICHING COULD DEVELOP STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CHANNELS
WITHIN THE SANDBARS. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY ALGER COUNTY BEACHES AND
MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE E TODAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COMPLEX WILL LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO EAST OF THE
LAKE BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE...WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE LINE.
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
SAT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.

ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS SE...CLEARING THE FOG FROM NW TO SE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





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