Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 242000
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb over New England and
another over Southern Saskatchewan and one over Central Ca this
morning. There is also a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes this
morning and this moves through the area this afternoon. Another
shortwave moves into the central plains 12z wed and this moves into
the upper Great Lakes by late Wed afternoon. Nam shows some 850-500
mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture moving through the cwa
this afternoon before exiting by this evening, then both return by
late Wed afternoon across the west. GFS and ECMWF show about the
same thing as well. Overall, going forecast had things well in hand
and have the pops diminishing tonight and bring them back into the
west late Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Challenging forecast in the long term as most days will see chances
for convection, but model confidence remains poor in terms of precip
timing through the period. The pattern will be dominated by a large
trough across the west half of the U.S., and a large ridge across
the east half of the U.S. Several short-wave troughs are progged to
eject from the western trough and round the eastern ridge. Upper MI
will be near the top of the ridge, so any shortwave energy rippling
through the ridge will bring chances for showers and some
thunderstorms.

Wed night into Thu morning will see the first in a series of
shortwaves moving through the area. Model indicated layer
precipitable water values of 1.3-1.5 inches, deep layer moderate
q-vector convergence associated with the shortwave and MUCAPE values
of 500 to near 1000 j/kg will support chances for showers and some
thunderstorms. Some of the models also hint at a second shortwave
moving through on Thu afternoon but forecast soundings show more
mid-level dry air and the potential for more capping which may limit
convection. So will continue to only carry low chance pops for
convection Thu afternoon.

Chances for showers and some storms continue through the weekend
into the early part of next week, but again poor model agreement on
timing of shortwave features will make it hard to pinpoint when
convection will be more likely. Will continue to utilize model
consensus approach for POPS at this time. Also due to poor model
resolution with shortwaves it will be hard to discern if there
will be any severe convection through the extended forecast period.
However, if daytime heating and the timing of shortwaves line up,
some strong to possbly severe storms cannot be ruled out from time
to time.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

As a weak front moves through the sites this afternoon, some sct
showers are expected that tend to diminish at CMX/IWD late in the
afternoon. Although VFR conditions will prevail ahead of the cold
fnt, the arrival of a shallow moist airmass in its wake will cause
some low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs following its passage at least for
a time. By tonight, lifr conditions will develop at all taf sites as
low level moisture remains trapped at the sfc. This will burn off
during Wed morning at all sites and CMX and IWD will go vfr while
SAW goes to mvfr.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

A period of NE winds of 20 to 25 knots over the western lake is
possible Wednesday as low pressure develops over the plains and
moves to the Upper MS valley. Otherwise, expect winds at or below 20
knots through the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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