Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 202333
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
733 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

Models still show the shortwave and upper trough axis sliding se of
the area later this afternoon and evening. Subsidence and strong
drying in the wake of the shortwave should spell an end to any
lingering showers by early this evening as clouds quickly decrease
from west to east and skies become mostly clear later tonight. With
the high pressure over the Plains settling over the western Great
Lakes light winds/clear skies will favor cooler temps tonight. A few
of the typical cool spots could fall into the lower 40s over the
western interior.

Building mid-level ridge heights and sfc high pres should ensure dry
conditions through much of Wednesday. Skies will start out mostly
sunny in the morning, but then expect some increase in clouds from
the west in the afternoon ahead of the next approaching shortwave
and frontal system from the Northern Plains. High temps will be
closer to seasonal normals with readings mostly in the 70s. Weak
pres gradients will allow lake breezes to develop off both Lake
Superior and Lake Michigan leading to slightly cooler readings (mid
to upper 60s) near the Great Lakes shorelines.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

Much more of the same is expected through the upcoming week, with
below normal temperatures and periodic chances for showers and
possibly some storms. North Pacific troughing combined with North
Atlantic ridging will keep a somewhat stagnant flow of western North
American ridging and eastern North American troughing into next
week. Signs are pointing to this pattern finally starting to break
down late next week.

Wednesday night through Thursday: A mid-level low over the Gulf of
Alaska will quickly round the western ridge tonight before
elongating over the southern Canadian Prairies on Wednesday. A lead
trough axis will sweep eastward across Upper MI Wednesday night into
Thursday morning while weak troughing over the central Plains
induces a convective complex over Iowa and southern Wisconsin.
Guidance continues to indicate scattered to numerous showers tied to
this trough axis and associated surface front, with most locations
seeing about a six hour window of precip. A few stronger elevated
storms may even sneak into the far south-central late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with 1-6km shear of 60kts and MuCAPE
nearing 1000j/kg. The U.P. may end up falling between the two
regions of best forcing, so am inclined to hold on to just low-end
likely PoPs.

The front will lay out across central WI on Thursday, providing an
impetus for more convection there later in the day. Some of this
convection may brush the south-central and far SE in the evening,
but much of the CWA should remain dry after the earlier precip
clears.

Friday through Tuesday: The aforementioned mid-level low will
reinforce deep troughing drifting southward from Hudson Bay. A
series of shortwave troughs wrapping around the longwave trough will
bring periods of scattered showers during this time, with diurnal
enhancement in the afternoons and evenings. With that said, the
focus for the best chances will be late Saturday afternoon into
Sunday morning in response to a stronger trough axis.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 732 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. High
pressure will build into the region tonight with mostly clear
skies. Some sct or bkn VFR cig diurnal cu will develop Wednesday
afternoon at SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 322 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

Expect winds to remain 20 kts or less into Wed. S winds shifting to
the SW may reach up to 25 kts late Wed night through Thu night as a
low pressure system and cold front cross the Upper Great Lakes.
Winds will diminish below 20 kts Fri into Sat behind the cold front.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Voss



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