Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271905
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES AS A DECAYING MID-LEVEL
LOW MEANDERS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. OTHER THAN
HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE CWA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIP ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO MAINLY
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA BY THU AFTERNOON. BUT SEEING HOW PRECIP IS
DECAYING ACROSS MN AND PORTIONS OF WI TODAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FORM THE NE...CONDITIONS FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THU. THOUGH...VIRGA WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES
REACHING THE GROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

HUDSON BAY HI PRES WL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON UPR MI
THRU THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WX TO THE AREA. THERE WL BE TWO LO PRES DISTURBANCES OF NOTE
PASSING THRU THE OH RIVER VALLEY/NEAR THE LOWER LKS DURING THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING E THRU AN ACTIVE SRN BRANCH FLOW
OVER THE SRN CONUS...ONE ON THU AND ANOTHER LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THESE LO PRES CENTERS MAY TRACK FAR ENUF N TO PERHAPS BRUSH
THE SCNTRL CWA WITH SOME CLDS/PCPN ESPECIALLY ON THU...THE DRY NE
FLOW OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY HI...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO
BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI...AND CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE UPR LKS
BTWN PERSISTENT DEEP TROF OVER QUEBEC AND THE SRN BRANCH FLOW E OF
TROFFING LINGERING OVER THE SW CONUS FAVOR A PCPN FREE FCST. DID
RETAIN SOME SCHC POPS OVER FAR SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY ON THU.

TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOB NORMAL THRU THE COMING WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NOT FAR FM 0C. OVERNGT LOWS SHOULD SHOW THE GREATEST NEGATIVE
DEPARTURES WITH MOCLR SKIES/DRY AIR SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING/MINS FALLING INTO THE 20S AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
BUT THE DRY AIR/SUNSHINE WL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHARP DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY DURING THE AFTN TO AT LEAST NEAR 60 AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.

DESPITE THE RECENT MDT TO HEAVY RA AND EXPECTED AOB NORMAL TEMPS THRU
THE WEEKEND...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX BEFORE GREENUP
MAY CAUSE FIRE WX ISSUES TO BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE FCST PERIOD WHEN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS H85 TEMPS MAY
RECOVER NEAR 10C BY MID NEXT WEEK AND SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/
GREATER EVAPORATION. PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER ENE WINDS WHEN THE
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR LKS SHARPENS BTWN THE HUDSON BAY HI AND LO
PRES DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE S MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DRYING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AND NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. MARGINAL LLWS MAY
OCCUR AT IWD TONIGHT WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 30 KTS AT 1 KFT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS FAVORS CONTINUED N TO NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE NEAR
DULUTH...WHERE FUNNELING OF NE WINDS WILL FAVOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH OVER CANADA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND BRING LIGHT
WINDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER


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