Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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965
FXUS63 KMQT 151936
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
236 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

The short term will be quiet as a couple of shortwaves track across
south central Canada in a zonal flow. Best forcing and isentropic
ascent associated with the shortwaves will stay well north into
Ontario and a dry airmass will dominate over Upper Mi thru the
period. Main impact from shortwaves over our area will be pressure
falls into Ontario ahead the initial shortwave today which will lead
to increasing sw winds this afternoon into this evening mainly over
Lake Superior. A period of gales is expected between Isle Royale and
the Keweenaw Peninsula.

Under sunny skies and waa, high temps today have rebounded into the
mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest over the nw/ncntrl part of the fcst area
at locations where sw winds downslope and coolest downwind of the
mostly ice covered bay of Green Bay. Expect mins tonight to be
mostly in the teens, although some locations along Lake Superior may
not fall blo 20F. A few locations over the south central where winds
will be lightest may dip into the single digits.

Under continued mostly sunny skies through much of day, Monday`s
high temps should rise well into the 30s over much of the west half
of Upper Mi with cooler low 30s temps east, downwind of Lake Mi in a
sw flow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Still watching Mon night and Tue for potential mixed precip, but
models have been trending SE and slightly colder with the system
which is putting the significant weather threat out of the CWA.
Still, since the two waves that will be interacting to create this
are still over MT and entering TX, there is room for changes to
guidance. Overall best chances for precip are over the SE CWA, near
Lake Michigan, where a wintry mix is forecast, but amounts are not
of concern currently.

Wed and Thu look dry and warmer thanks to increased ridging aloft.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s while lows remain in the 20s
in most spots.

Late this week into this weekend is highly uncertain as models
depict the upper ridge being attacked by multiple waves coming in
from the W. Rain chances move in late Fri and stick around through
Sun. Highs will be around 40F and lows should be near or just above
freezing.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

With a dry air mass associated with high pres dominating thru this
fcst period, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. As the
high moves off to the east later today/tonight, increasing w to sw
winds above sfc based inversion will result in marginal LLWS at
KIWD/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 235 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Tightening pres gradient between high pres to the s and low pres
tracking ese toward northern Ontario has led to increasing sw winds
across Lake Superior this afternoon which will continue into this
evening. Aided by max pres falls passing n of the lake, expect gale
force sw winds to 35 knots over portions of western and north
central Lake Superior this afternoon and evening. Winds will then
diminish to under 15kt Mon afternoon thru Tue as a high pres ridge
moves over the area. Winds will then be mostly 20kt or less thru the
mid and late week period as conditions become unseasonably warm over
the Upper Lakes with no significant weather features impacting the
area.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Monday for LSZ243-244-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Voss



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