Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 281341
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
941 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR FARGO THIS
MORNING IN AN EMBEDDED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOSED
LOW AND TROUGH HEAD EAST TODAY AND MOVE OUT TONIGHT. NAM SHOWS
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LEAVES TODAY...BUT THE DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS. A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND PCPN IS
PULLING OUT THIS MORNING...SO INTRODUCED A DRY PERIOD FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE WRAPAROUND PCPN WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN. VERY
BUSY WITH THIS SHIFT HANDLING MOST OF THE GRIDS WHILE THE LONG TERM
FORECASTER WAS ISSUING WARNINGS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST. COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL BE SLIDING EAST TOWARD
QUEBEC TO START DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW NEAR 990MB WILL BE IN THE
VCNTY OF JAMES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE LOW LOWERS H85
TEMPS TO -5C. SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH THROUGH H7 AT 12Z...BUT THIS
DIMINISHES TO 925-850MB MOIST LAYER THROUGH MORNING IN WEST AND IN
THE AFTN EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 2-3KFT WEST AND 3-4KFT EAST DO
NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY OR EVEN INTO THE EVENING BUT THERE IS
DRYING BLO CLOUD BASE. WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 6C...LOOKING AT
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE SO FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT. POPS HIGHEST FOR NW FLOW AREAS DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...MAINLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THOSE AREAS OVER 30 MPH AROUND DAYBREAK. SMALL POPS FOR STUBBORN
LAKE EFFECT WERE RETAINED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC CONVERGENCE MORE
OVR NCNTRL VCNTY OF MARQUETTE AND MUNISING WHICH IS WHERE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE FEATURED.

INTO THURSDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE A TIME OF TRANSITION.
SOME HINT THAT SHORTWAVE/MID-LEVEL RH SWINGS OVER THE AREA. PROBABLY
WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THOUGH PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. LATE IN
THE DAY DIGS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR FM MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL
SERVE TO BUCKLE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FM WNW TO SHARPER NNE-N INTO
FRIDAY. APPEARING LIKELY THAT ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR LATER
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE LINGERING LAYER OF
WARM AIR BLO H9...REST OF SOUNDING IS BLO 0C. PROFILES INDICATE
UNSTABLE PROFILE THROUGH H6...RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED CAPES UPWARD
OF 500J/KG. A LOT OF LIFT IS LOCATED WITHIN MOIST LAYER AND BULK OF
MOISTURE/LIFT IS OCCURRING WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO -10C. THINK WE
ARE LOOKING AT FIRST WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON AND
SINCE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SNOWFALL RATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE...LIKELY WILL BE SEEING EVEN
AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. ADDED
TO THE SNOW WILL BE GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 30-40 MPH AS THE
DEEP MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING DOWN STRONG H9-H85 WINDS.
TIME TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WILL DO THAT
THIS MORNING.

LATER FRIDAY MORNING...DIRECT IMPACT FM THE SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FADE. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. STILL... UPPER
TROUGHING AND THERMAL TROUGHING IS ALIVE AND WELL ON FRIDAY WITH
H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -12C AND THOSE TEMPS OCCURRING WITHIN MOIST LAYER
WHICH WILL EXTEND UP TO 5-8KFT. THUS...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF ICE
CRYSTALS TO SEED FM ALOFT LEADING TO HIGHER SLR/S. HAVE LIKELY POPS
INTO THE AFTN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CNTRL. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT FLOW...COULD
SEE SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS DELTA AND NORTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. STRONGEST WINDS DIMINISH BY MID-LATE AFTN. BY
FRIDAY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING BUT STILL WILL BE COOL
AND BLUSTERY WITH ISOLD OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT INTO SATURDAY
AS SFC RIDGE ARRIVES /NOT BEFORE A COLD NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTERIOR WEST THOUGH/. THE PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
SOUTHWEST BY LATER SATURDAY. WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND IN LOWER 40S SCNTRL. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON
SUNDAY. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING
DOMINATES A GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP REGIME AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME COLDER AIR/MORE
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL. THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DELAY IMPROVEMENT TODAY AT
KIWD AND ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING AT KIWD AND DURING THE AFTN AT KCMX. OCNL -SHRA WILL
ALSO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX THRU THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL STAY MOSTLY
VFR AT KSAW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR CIGS AT
KSAW THIS MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30
KNOTS...WITH A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KNOTS AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07/SRF







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