Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 072353
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
653 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017

...Lake effect snow ramping up again late today and tonight over the
northwest and late tonight into Friday over the eastern counties...

Radar and visible satellite imagery show lake effect snow bands
pushing east of Alger and northern Schoolcraft this afternoon. They
will continue to move east of Luce County by evening with backing
wind flow.

Convergent westerly wind flow noted over western and south central
Lake Superior along lake-induced trough will likely focus a dominant
les band into the Keweenaw Peninsula late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Enhancement of this developing band will be provided
by a clipper shortwave descending through northern Ontario as noted
on water vapor imagery. Would not be surprised to see localized
snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches this evening wherever this
developing dominant band sets up, likely between Twin Falls and
Hancock as steep lapse rates and deep moisture to 8-10 kft noted on
fcst soundings along with very favorable dendrtic snow growth.

Shortwave moving across the Upper Lakes will push lake induced
trough onshore late tonight into Friday morning. At that time
dominant snow bands will push south of the Keweenaw and into
Ontonagon, Baraga and southern Houghton counties of west and into
Alger, Luce and northern Schoolcraft counties.

For headlines...have winter wx advisories starting into northwest
counties this afternoon and those will be extended into Saturday to
capture next round of lake snows Fri night into Sat with next
clipper system moving through area. Started advisories for Alger,
Luce and northern Schoolcraft 09Z tonight and those will also be
extended into early Sat to include snow for next clipper system.
Started Gogebic and Marquette County advisories late Fri afternoon
and will continue those headlines into Sat morning as flow veers
from northwest to north with clipper system. With SLRs expected from
25-30/1 expect storm total snow amounts to generally range from 4 to
9 inches across the advisory areas with localized amounts closer to
a foot over higher terrain of eastern and north central counties and
probably from 14 to 18 inches over a few higher terrain locations of
the west where dominant band this evening boosts snow amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 449 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017

Very active lake effect pattern continues through the long term with
occasional enhancement by passing clippers. Most attention in the
long term is on Fri night into Sat when moderate to heavy snow is
expected.

A shortwave will move through Fri evening into Fri night, bringing
colder air to around -20C and NW to N winds. This will lead to
moderate to heavy snow in the NW to N snowbelts and light snow
inland. Amounts from 00Z to 18Z Sat are forecast to be 3-7" near
Lake Superior, greatest over the higher terrain of the W and the N-
central. Elsewhere, a trace to 1" is expected. Some blowing snow is
expect near Lake Superior, but nothing too significant. In
coordination with the short term forecaster, issued a Winter Weather
Advisory.

Another period for enhancement looks to be Monday afternoon into
Monday night and again Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Model
blends are handling this well for the mid-long range, so didn`t make
any significant changes then. Will continue to monitor conditions in
that time period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 652 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017

W winds and a passing disturbance will result in heavier lake effect
shsn at KCMX this evening along with BLSN at times as winds gust
above 20kt. Expect prevailing LIFR conditions with ocnl IFR. Not out
of the question for VIS to be down around airfield mins at times.
Conditions will improve to prevailing IFR overnight then to MVFR
early in the morning as drier air arrives following the disturbance.
At KIWD, expect conditions varying btwn IFR and MVFR this evening,
then prevailing MVFR into Fri aftn. At KSAW, VFR conditions
overnight should fall back to MVFR on Fri. Next approaching
disturbance will bring deteriorating conditions Fri evening.
KIWD/KCMX will likely fall back to IFR near the end of this fcst
period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 355 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017

Winds are expected to remain in the 20-30 kt range into early next
week as an active weather pattern keeps a fairly tight gradient
across Lake Superior. Freezing spray is expected through Friday
night and again late Monday into MOnday night. Air temps staying
mainly in the 20s should prohibit heavy freezing spray through this
time period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for MIZ006-007-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Friday to 1 PM
     EST /noon CST/ Saturday for MIZ005-009.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for MIZ001>004-
     084.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for LSZ162-
     241>243-263-265-266.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...BB



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