Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211146
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACRS THE CONUS WITH A STRONGER W-E POLAR BRANCH FLOW NEAR THE
CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF A WEAKER SRN BRANCH OVER THE SCENTRAL
STATES. SHRTWV RDG EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR BRANCH AND OVER NE MN/NW
ONTARIO AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS ARE
BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI THIS MRNG EXCEPT OVER FAR SRN MENOMINEE
COUNTY...WHERE SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE NRN EDGE OF
RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR STRUNG W-E THRU THE CENTRAL LKS AND SAMPLED BY
THE FAIRLY MOIST 00Z GRB RAOB. MORE WDSPRD SHRA/EMBEDDED TS ARE
PRESENT OVER SW WI/FAR SE MN UNDER DEEPER MSTR/SOME UPR DVGC AHEAD
OF DISTURBANCE ON THE NRN EDGE OF SRN BRANCH FLOW. ALTHOUGH COLDER
CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPANDING TOWARD THE WI BORDER TO THE NE OF THESE
SHOWERS...THE LOWER LVL W FLOW OF VERY DRY AIR FM THE DIRECTION OF
MPX IS LIMITING THE N SPREAD OF THE SHRA LOCATED JUST S OF THAT RAOB
SITE. OTRW...SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
CWA AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVED OVER LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT SEE
SGNFT LLVL DRYING YDAY AFTN. OVER THE W WHERE SFC DEWPTS MIXED OUT
AS LO AS 25-30 AT IWD ON SUN AND TEMPS ARE STILL ABV 32 AT MOST
SPOTS...THERE IS LTL IF ANY FOG. A MUCH STRONGER SHRTWV IN THE POLAR
BRANCH FLOW IS NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND MOVING STEADILY TO THE E. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LGT STRIKES IN MANITOBA RIGHT
UNDER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO THE CORE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
BUT SINCE THIS SHRTWV IS CUTOFF FM THE MOISTER AIRMASS TO THE S...
THERE IS ONLY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN EARLY THIS MRNG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE FOG EARLY THIS MRNG AND
THEN PCPN CHCS LATER TODAY/TNGT AS POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV/ATTENDANT
COLD FNT IMPACT UPR MI.

TODAY...EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MRNG OVER THE
SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT INCRSG HI CLDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WDSPRD DENSE FOG. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY
REDUCED VSBYS. SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS FCST TO MOVE E THRU NW
ONTARIO AND DRAG IT ATTENDANT COLD FNT ACRS UPR MI THIS AFTN. SINCE
BULK OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE N AND JUST
BRUSH THE NRN LAND CWA...SUSPECT ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WL ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA. ALMOST ALL THE MODELS THAT WERE SHOWING A GREATER
INTERACTION BTWN THIS SHRTWV/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S AND SGNFT
EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/SHOWERS INTO UPR MI HAVE RETREATED A BIT FM
THIS FCST...A REASONABLE TREND CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY NATURE OF
THE 00Z MPX RAOB AND LACK OF SGNFT BACKING OF THE UPR FLOW FM THE W
THRU THE DAY. THE 00Z HI RES CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE HEAVIER PCPN
OVERSPREADING MOST OF UPR MI ALONG WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE MIXED LYR
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. FCST SDNGS FM THIS MODEL SHOW FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
MOISTENING THRU THE LOWER TROP WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING TO ARND
55...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM RSNBL IN THE ABSENCE OF A DEEPER SW FLOW.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWS MORE MODEST MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
SCENTRL. WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS THIS AFTN WHERE THIS MODEL SHOWS
THE GREATER INSTABILITY UP TO 700-800 J/KG OVER THE SCNTRL. INCLUDED
A SCHC OF TS IN THIS AREA AS WELL GIVEN ARRIVAL OF COLD FNT DURING
PEAK HEATING TIME THAT WL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL AGAIN IN THE
PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM 10C AND AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. COOLER AIR WL ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE
DAY FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

TNGT...NW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 25-35 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FROPA WL DRIVE COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT. MODELS
SHOW H85 TEMPS SINKING AS LO AS -7 TO -8C OVER THE W BY 12Z TUE.
WHILE THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT
PCPN...MODELS DO SHOW SOME LLVL MOISTENING BLO STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H85 UNDER THE LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. GOING FCST SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE/FRZG
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN WITH MOISTENING/INVRN BASE BLO THE
DGZ. THIS FCST SEEMS RSNBL...BUT DID ADD SOME FLURRIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL STILL KEEP DRIZZLE GOING GIVEN
THE LIMITED LIKELIHOOD OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE SOUNDING. OTHERWISE
COOL N-NW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8C
RANGE HELPING TO KEEP MAX SFC TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
AROUND AND PW VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.25IN/
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH OUR END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM. WHILE
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP REMAINS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...THE 21/00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE DEEPER MORE WRAPPED UP SFC LOW THAT
IT/S 20/12Z RUN INDICATED. STILL...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT 0.5-1IN
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND W OF A LINE FROM MQT TO MNM
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING 1IN OR MORE OVER THE W HALF. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE
SYSTEM IS AROUND 84HRS OR MORE INTO THE FUTURE...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MORE BROAD/AVERAGED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

ANY LINGERING FOG AT SAW WL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FNT WL SWING THRU UPR MI TODAY...THE
AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SGNFT SHRA ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHC FOR
A FEW -SHRA WL BE AT SAW...AS THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FNT WL BE IN
BETTER PHASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTY NW WINDS THAT WL APRCH 30
KTS AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION TNGT BEHIND THE FROPA WL DRAW
MUCH COLDER AIR AS WELL AS SOME LO CLDS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE BEST
CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX...PLACES THAT
WL EXPERIENCE THE SHARPEST UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS
TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR INVADES THE UPPER LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER THE SHARPER GRADIENT/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MENTIONED SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS OVER THE ECENTRAL FOR
NOW. THESE STONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE
AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT
SHARPENS AGAIN...INCREASING SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LO...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGHEST SNOW DEPTH REPORTED YESTERDAY MORNING OF 32IN AT MOHAWK WAS
ABLE TO DROP DOWN TO 28IN BY LATE EVENING. AT THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM...SEVERAL SITES FROM IWD THROUGH ISQ WERE REPORTING LITTLE
TO NO SNOW. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
MELT WILL SLOW TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT OVER N UPPER MI AS COLD N-NNW
WINDS KEEP TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S TUESDAY. AS FOR
FURTHER OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO NOTICE SIGNIFICANT STREAM/RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE 0.75-1IN OF
LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD
RIVER.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER
IN DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF






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