Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 052024
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET FORECAST WITH NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
DRIFTS TO AN AXIS FM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE
STRONG WINTER STORM HEADING OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVER UPR GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FM THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT APPROACH. WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH ON LK SUPERIOR AND
15-20 MPH ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR NORTHWEST CWA.
THESE STEADY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING TOO MUCH ALONG LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY BLO ZERO THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO RISE LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
AS WINDS INCREASE EVEN INLAND.

INTO FRIDAY...COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SLIDE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A SFC WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING
AND MORE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE AFTN. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION H9-H8 WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE
H925-H85 LAYER WITH ADDITIONAL INTERVALS OF HIGHER RH ALOFT H7-H6.
LIFT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER STAYS WEAK...SO WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES. BEST CHANCE OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMS...STILL WELL UNDER AN INCH...WOULD BE WHERE SATURATION/LIFT
IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE/DEEPER OVER EASTERN CWA VCNTY
OF P53/ISQ/ERY.

BKN-OVC SKIES AND MINIMAL MIXING DUE TO SHARP INVERSION WITH WARM
FRONT IN VCNTY SUGGEST TEMPS REACH MAINLY IN THE 20S. UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST AND LOWER-MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST
IN THE EAST AS WINDS FLOW OFF NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG
OVER WRN NAMERICA THAT HAVE DOMINATED MUCH OF THIS WINTER WL LINGER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK...THESE FEATURES ARE FCST TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW TRENDING W
FLOW BTWN THE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ERN TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE
PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL. THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF ANY LES.

FRI...A PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE TRACKING
SE. THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING THRU NRN ONTARIO...WHILE
THE WEAKER SRN ONE WL BE MOVING NEAR UPR MI/WI. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/AXIS OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR IN THE SW FLOW BTWN THE
ACCOMPANYING LO PRES TROF EXTENDING SW FM THE LO CENTER MOVING THRU
FAR NRN ONTARIO AND THE HI PRES RDG SINKING TOWARD THE SE STATES WL
IMPACT UPR MI INTO THE AFTN...WHEN THE SRN DISTURBANCE WL SHIFT TO
THE E OF THE FA AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/MID LVL
DRYING. SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES...WITH PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
LIMITED BY ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS/LACK OF MSTR INFLOW/PASSAGE OF
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE N CLOSER TO THE STRONGER
ONTARIO SHRTWV...WL SHIFT W-E ACRS THE CWA. MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS TO THE N AND OVER THE E...WHERE THERE MAY BE MARGINAL
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLVL SW FLOW OFF SOME OPEN WATER IN NRN LK MI.
WITH H85 TEMPS RECOVERING TO -8 TO -10C OVER THE W AND NEAR -14C
OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT. TEMPS WL
LOWEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE RETREATING THERMAL TROF AND WHERE
LLVL SW FLOW OFF THE PARTIALLY ICE COVERED WATERS OF NRN LK MI WL BE
COOLED.

FRI NGT/SAT...THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING SE THRU
THE UPR LKS ARND 12Z SAT. RECENT ECWMF RUNS HAD SHOWN A MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FM 00Z-12Z SAT APRCHG 100M IN THE
VIGOROUS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. BUT
THE 00Z RUN DEPICTS A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE REST
OF THE MODELS. ONCE AGAIN...ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR...WITH FCST PWAT
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 0.25 INCH...WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS SHRTWV. EXPECT THE HIEST CHC POPS IN THE 06Z-
15Z SAT TIME FRAME OVER THE NRN TIER...WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OFF LK SUP. TRAILING SHRTWV RDG/DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC WL BRING A DRYING TREND ON SAT AFNT. WITH H85 TEMPS
SINKING TO ARND -14C UNDER THE INCOMING THERMAL TROF...THERE COULD
BE SOME LES OFF THE OPEN SPOTS IN THE LK SUP ICE COVER IN THE NW
BACKING W LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF A TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WX ON SAT NGT WITH PASSAGE
OF SFC RDG AXIS/WSHFT TO THE SW THAT SHOULD SHIFT ANY LES OFF INTO
LK SUP. NEXT MSTR STARVED CLIPPER/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
INFLUENCE THE AREA SUN. FCST WL SHOW SOME CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN TIER. ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS UNDER TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL
BRING DRIER WX LATER SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH LES POTENTIAL LIMITED BY
MARGINALLY CHILLY H85 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -11C RANGE.

EXTENDED...GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SHRTWV/SFC LO STREAKING E ACROSS ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE. THE
FCST WSW FLOW BTWN THIS SFC LO AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS OVER 0C AND AS HI AS 4-6C
OVER THE SRN TIER ON TUE. PCPN ACCOMPANYING THE ONTARIO CLIPPER
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE N OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
WAA CLDS/FLURRIES ON MON...DRYING FCST FOR TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY INTO THE 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE EXPECTED LLVL W
FLOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE STARK MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE GFS SHOWS A RETURN OF COLDER AIR WHILE THE ECMWF HINTS AT A
SGNFT WARMING TREND FOLLOWING A BRIEF RETURN TO COOLER WX ON WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES AFFECT KCMX THIS AFTN BEFORE
MOVING OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED VFR CU AT KSAW AND CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AT KIWD. QUIET CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN
CLOUDS THICKEN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR AS THE WARM FRONT
CROSSES ON FRIDAY MORNING. SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE WITH THE FRONT
MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ON
WESTERN AND NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS DECREASE FURTHER
SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES. SW WINDS KICK UP AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
MOVES OVER LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.

LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE ICE MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT
AROUND AND/OR DIMINISH DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO
SINCE TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA


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