Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 021756
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



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