Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 210654
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
CA...A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT.

NAM TAKES STRONG 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME
THING AS WELL AND GOING FORECAST HAS TRENDS WELL IN HAND WITH PCPN
MOVING OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS THEY SEEMED REASONABLE AND FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND THIS IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG
THOUGH AS WINDS GET LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO SET UP AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION TO FORM FOG...SO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE
U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.5 WHICH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE ONE ISSUE COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE EC/GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
PUSHING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AT
BEST THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 14C GIVING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE GFS/EC HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE
EC BRINGING IN SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH THE CONTINUED
VARYING SOLUTIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WITH STRENGTHENING N TO NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG OVER NRN
AND NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW CIGS FARTHER N WILL SPREAD S...LEADING
TO IFR CIGS AT KIWD. WITH MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO KSAW
AND WITH MORE FOG NOTED OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KSAW...AND
THERE MAY BE SOME VIS REDUCTION DUE TO BR/-DZ. UNDER LESS FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE NE WINDS...KCMX SHOULDN`T FALL BLO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HRS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...ALL TERMINALS WILL TREND UP
TO VFR TODAY WITH KSAW THE LAST TO IMPROVE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NO GALES SEEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS CLOSE TO GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD BE THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECASTED THIS PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...07






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