Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 030001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.

AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA FRI EVENING...WITH
THE NCAR ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER
STORM EVEN IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE KINEMATICS WILL BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORM WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT OF ONLY 25-30KT AT 500MB. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
INLAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET AS SOLAR INSOLATION DIMINISHES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
MAY BE A LITTLE COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
WEAK N-NE FLOW...HOWEVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE EVENING FOR
FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY...AND IT MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
TEMPS IN THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +17C. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND INSTABILITY
MINIMAL SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FROPA BEING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREA. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE FROPA WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STILL UNCLEAR IF STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE MONDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING THE BEST DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...THERE WILL BE
LIKELY AMPLE DYNAMICS AND LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIKELY ANOTHER
COOL DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO AROUND +6C
WITH N-NE WINDS. MAY BE A SIMILAR DAY TO LAST TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH RISES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. SOME SUGGESTION OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THU AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AT
KCMX LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KSAW FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER
OUT OF THE TAF THROUGH 18Z FRI WITH LOW PROBABILITY AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.