Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 131101
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
701 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN
MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AS THE TROUGH ALSO DIGS SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS PERIOD.

NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT BEFORE
BOTH MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH PARAMETERS RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW APPROACH.

WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. RETURN POPS IN FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE AS UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. KEPT THIS AFTERNOON DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH POPS/TEMPS MON-WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY HANGING OUT OVER EXTREME NWRN ONTARIO AND IT SET TO
SPLIT IN TWO TODAY...SENDING A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE
OTHER ROTATES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT UNTIL THE 00Z/14 RUNS WHICH WILL BE AFTER A LOT OF
THE ENERGY HAS SPLIT OUT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS NOW...AT LEAST
MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN MON INTO MON NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
LINGERING INTO TUE. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE PRECIP INCLUDE THE
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...DAYTIME
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
LOW...AND NLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TROUGHING E AND A HIGH
WELL TO THE W. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BY FAR WILL BE ON MON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY WELL
BE SOME DRY SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COMPACTS
UPPER LOW...SO THOSE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS WHEN MODELS /HOPEFULLY/ COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HAVE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S W AND AROUND 60 S AND E. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE N WINDS AND COLD CORE OF THE LOW STILL OVER THE CWA TUE
MORNING...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY TO
THE NE ON TUE...WITH A SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE WRN
CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE 50. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THINK THE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT COULD BE TOO WARM...BUT
ONLY IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS. WITH THE COLD DAY ON TUE...CLEARING
/OF UNCERTAIN MAGNITUDE/ TUE NIGHT FROM W TO TO E MAY LEAD TO SOME
COLDER MIN TEMPS OVER WRN UPPER MI. AMONG THE REASONS FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY ARE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW/TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
AS MUCH.

REMAINING UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WED AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND THE
AIRMASS OVERALL WARMER...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER SFC TEMPS WITH
HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 70 INLAND.

FORECAST WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. IN GENERAL...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SAT...HIGH TEMPS COULD REACH 80 OVER THE INTERIOR W.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KSAW AND FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD AT KCMX AND KIWD. OTHERWISE...BEHIND COLD
FRONT...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS GUSTING
20-30KT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED WITH
A WNW WIND. MVFR CIGS WILL COME INTO KIWD AND KCMX LATER TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





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