Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261746
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1246 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA






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