Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 302302
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FOR THE NEXT 1 TO PERHAPS 2 WEEKS...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W
HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA AND AT TIMES
INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...ENERGY APPROACHING THE
W COAST WILL SPLIT AT TIMES...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF A
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES TROF
TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY...CERTAINLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT
POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE
PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PEAKING WRN CANADA RIDGE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED
TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN COLD
FROPA PROBABLY OCCURRING LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS...THIS FROPA BRINGS THE ONLY PCPN POTENTIAL WORTH A MENTION IN
THE FCST. REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH DECENT
FORCING...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE HIGHER CHC CATEGORY TUE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DECENT FORCING/STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED/COLDER
TROF...MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING OVER THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERMAL TROF
WILL BE CENTERED (850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C).

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN FAVORS MOSTLY NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON SOME
DAYS...NIGHTTIME MINS WILL STILL BE DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR
MON...THOUGH LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN WILL RULE
THE AFTN HRS KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOLER. WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE TUE
AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WARMTH ON TUE WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NOTABLE CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW
FOR WED UNDER BRISK N WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK SOLIDLY BLO
NORMAL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH 850MB
THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING COOL CONDITIONS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THE
COOL AIR THRU THU. WHILE FCST SHOWS SOME RISE IN TEMPS THU COMPARED
TO WED...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS THU END UP BEING PRETTY
SIMILAR TO WED. IN RECENT DAYS...GFS RUNS WERE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DROPPING A COLD MID LEVEL LOW INTO NRN ONTARIO MIDWEEK WITH
ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500MB HEIGHTS FOR EARLY MAY. OVER THE LAST 24HRS...
THE GFS HAS MOVED AWAY FROM DROPPING THIS SYSTEM SO FAR S. SO...
AFTER THE COOL WEATHER WED/THU...MODERATION WILL OCCUR FRI/SAT.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS OUTLOOKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A TREND TOWARD WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF MAY.

WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX
WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW
WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS


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