Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON


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