Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 040825
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A STRONG RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER MI MOVES VERY
LITTLE TODAY OR SLOWLY MOVES BACK WESTWARD AND WILL AFFECT THE
EASTERN CWA TODAY.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES
OVERALL. DID ADD IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES BACK TO
THE WEST SLIGHTLY AND SOME EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD
OCCUR TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE ERN CWA. THIS WAS THE ONLY CHANGE THAT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST.
THIS SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS THE PCPN THREAT TONIGHT. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE WEST
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY FOCUSED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SAT
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ON CONTINUED HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN.

FRI NIGHT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST PART...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W A SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES W OF
THE CWA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR SETUP ON SAT...BUT GREATER
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE W. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...DUE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE SAT AT ONLY AROUND
20KTS...WHICH LIMITS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE 12Z/03 GFS IS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT NIGHT IN SHOWING PRECIP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY SAT
NIGHT...WITH THE W POSSIBLY SEEING SOME CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
STAY OVER THE W HALF ON SUN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE W.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER SUN...WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES AROUND
30KTS...BUT MUCAPES WILL ONLY BE 1000-1500J/KG. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST ON SUN AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE 20-22C...PROMOTING WARMEST
TEMPS AROUND 90 IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THE COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH WILL
MEAN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME PRECIP.

MON WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PRECIP EXITING E. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...BUT 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS C BY LATE MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS DETAILS OF A TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE REGION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK COOLER WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SINCE
DAYTIME HEATING YESTERDAY HELPED MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SINCE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS
DENSE/WIDESPREAD AS RECENT NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...SINCE MARINE FOG
HAS CLEARED OFF MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...
ADVECTION OF MARINE FOG WON`T BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO POOR CONDITIONS.
THUS...IT STILL APPEARS FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULDN`T DROP VIS BLO MVFR AT
KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF IFR AROUND DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
WIND AT KIWD MAY WORK TO KEEP THAT TERMINAL VFR THRU THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM MID MORNING INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. FOG WILL PROBABLY MAKE A RETURN NEAR OR
JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 1-3 FT
WAVES ACROSS THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT
WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07


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