Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 200801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN MN
THAT IS KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MN/ONTARIO BORDER THIS MORNING AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. MORE ENERGY IS BACK IN ALBERTA AND THIS
WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY AND AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM
FORMS A CLOSED LOW TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS SECOND
SHORTWAVE.

NAM SHOWS STRONG 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT THIS
MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE. SOME
DRYING AND Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CWA.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT BAND OF CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH IS CUTTING OFF MOISTURE TO THIS SHORTWAVE AND CUT BACK
POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. NAM AND GFS ARE STARTING TO
TAKE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA TONIGHT AND HAVE
LOWEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. THESE ARE THE ONLY MAJOR
CHANGES I MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST AND DID GO DRY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE CWA. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO GOING TEMPERATURES
AS THEY SEEMED REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ON SUNDAY...THE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO BE FOCUSED NR THE MI/WI BORDER SUNDAY
MORNING WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
LOCATED. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVING IN DURING THE DAY. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...IT WILL BE QUITE RAW SUN MORNING WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
SOME SUN AFTN AS THE SUN COMES OUT...BUT THE WORRY IS THAT AREAS
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAY STAY IN THE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL THEREFORE TREND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LOW-MID 50S
WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER WILL BE CLOSE TO 60.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME FROST SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DUE TO PWAT VALUES UNDER
0.40 INCH. IN FACT...EVEN THE NATIVE NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING AT MQT. WILL THEREFORE EXPAND PATCHY FROST FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER PENINSULA. THE EAST MAY SEE THE
COLDEST TEMPS MON MORNING DUE TO THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 60S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10 BY MON
EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET AND INDIAN SUMMER TYPE
SETUP FOR THE WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. ONLY
CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
W-NW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME PERIOD. WARMEST DAY MAY BE FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS OF +14 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR AT ALL 3
TAF SITES BY SUNRISE AS SW FLOW ADVECTS MORE LLVL MSTR INTO UPR MI
IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT. BEST CHC FOR SOME LIFR CONDITIONS
WL BE AT CMX...WHERE WSHFT TO A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FNT WL ENHANCE UPSLOPE COOLING.
THERE WL BE SOME -SHRA...AND EVEN AN ELEVATED TS IS PSBL...BUT NO
SGNFT VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY. AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
ON SAT BEHIND THE FROPA...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO VFR. BUT ANOTHER
TROF WL SWING THRU THE AREA THIS EVNG...AND SOME LO CLDS/MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN OFF LK SUP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT
WIND COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE WINDS CLOSE TO GALES
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SUNDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






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