Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 271653
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND THAT STARTED YESTERDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED INLAND OVER THE N CENTRAL...WITH NO
NEW STRINGS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON THE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY. OVER
THE W IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE LAST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GONE
THROUGH CMX...DROPPING THE VIS DOWN TO 6SM TEMPORARITY. LOOK FOR THE
STEADY N WINDS TO KEEP THEM GOING DOWN W LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR IWD THE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PUSHING/CONCENTRATING THE BANDS OVER N WI. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO...E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IT/S
GRIP ACROSS UPPER MI...LIMITED IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.

UNDER THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 30F...WARMEST ALONG THE WI BORDER. IT LOOKS TO BE A
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE
ZERO...COLDEST WELL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR -10 TO -15F OVER IRON COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT STRONG PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
LOOK FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS WITH SW TO W GALES OF
35KTS /POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40KTS/ LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW GALES TO 35KTS WILL LINGER OVER THE E HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A RIDGE TO PASS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK SE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



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