Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211027
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND IS LOCATED
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS (AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY)...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR (FROM A HIGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY). 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KGRB/KAPX/KINL ALL HAVE 850MB TEMPS IN
THE -16 TO -20C RANGE AND WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ROTATING
AROUND THIS RIDGE...THE AREA IS STILL SEEING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THOSE FAVORED SNOW BELTS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WAS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS
MORNING...HELPING TO GIVE WINDS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTH-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN THAT AREA (AND CONFIRMED ON KMQT VWP). THAT HAS PUSHED
SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED
WITH THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT...RUNNING ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY
SHORELINE AND INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY. BUT THE KMQT VWP AND
SURFACE WINDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NOW AND IT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH THE BANDS TO THE
EAST. WITH THIS PUSH AND THE LIMITED SNOWFALL RATES SHOWN ON
RADAR...WILL SHORTEN THE WARNING FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT TO 12Z. FARTHER TO THE WEST...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE
THE AFFECT OF THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE-850MB RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE. IT LED TO THE LAKE EFFECT QUICKLY DIMINISHING BETWEEN
THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND KIWD SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE KEWEENAW. KCMX IS STILL SEEING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO 2MI...BUT IT HAS LARGELY
TRANSITIONED TO VERY LIGHT SNOW.

AS THIS LOW LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WILL SEE THE LAKE
EFFECT DIMINISH AND END FROM WEST-EAST THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANY LINGERING
BANDS BEING FOCUSED OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING BY MID MORNING AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
AS THEY ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT
THE GUSTS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWEST WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO COVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN TEXAS
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA (LOWER
MICHIGAN) AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE...STILL SHOULD SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CWA
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CLOUD TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND -8C (COLD ENOUGH FOR A DECENT NUMBER OF ICE
NUCLEI) BUT WILL THEN STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z SATURDAY. FARTHER ALOFT...THERE IS PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS THAT
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDING ICE CRYSTALS...BUT A
LARGE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 875-700MB WOULD KEEP ANY
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS FROM HAPPENING. THUS...ICE CRYSTAL POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BECOME VERY LIMITED BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCUR IT WOULD BE AND LIQUID FORM. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING TO MUCH LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BIG CHANGES ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT PERSISTENTLY
MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RELAX
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STRONG WAVE PLOWS
INTO THE PAC NW FORCING THE TROUGH OUT FM ERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS QUICKLY AS MODELS SHOW 220-240M 500MB HEIGHT RISES
OVER UPPER MI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING RIDGE FM THE PLAINS.
SO...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY LONG STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER FOR NOV
(RECORD BREAKING SUBFREEZING STREAK AT NWS MQT FOR NOV AND ALSO 6
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS)...EXPECT A QUICK
TRANSITION BACK TO NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SURGING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL CARVE OUT A
SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM TROF THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING FROM NORTH TX SUN MORNING TO
NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS BY MONDAY WITH PRES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
HIGH 970S MB OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW...RAIN WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH MODERATE PCPN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON MON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO
TUE...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER THIS WEEKENDS WARMUP...MODELS
POINT TOWARD A COLD PATTERN BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA/NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL S TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS/GREAT LAKES
REGION AGAIN. MANY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON (WELL BLO -20C 8H TEMPS) DROPPING SE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER THIS COLD
PATTERN WILL AGAIN BECOME PERSISTENT LIKE WHAT WE`VE SEEN THIS PAST
WEEK REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT THERE IS RECENT SUPPORT FROM THE NAEFS
AND CFSV2 RUNS THAT COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY DECEMBER.

BEGINNING SAT...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN STRENGTHENING
WSW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE E COAST AND LOW PRES
MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA...SOME OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME VERY
LIGHT PCPN OVER THE ERN FCST AREA ON SAT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...PERSISTENCE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
AS NOTED ON THE 00Z GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WARRANTS NOTHING MORE
THAN SCHC POPS TO LOW CHC POPS SAT. GIVEN DRYNESS NOTED IN MID-LVLS
AND THE SFC BASED MOIST LAYER WARMER THAN -10C...PCPN MAY END UP
MOSTLY AS -DZ/-FZDZ IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR. EXPECT TEMPS ON SAT TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE.

SAT NIGHT...WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SUGGEST MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS UNDER DRIER MID LEVELS...EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30F IN GENERAL.

SUN INTO MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL
HELP PULL THIS SYSTEM NORTH AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT PHASING THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO THE 970S MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE UPPER LAKES MON MORNING. THE GFS HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW SHOWING AROUND 980 MB SFC LOW TRACKING TO NEAR
MACKINAC STRAITS BY 12Z MON. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN HAD TRENDED FARTHER
EAST TOWARD THE GFS SOLN TRACK AND THE LATEST 00Z RUN SHOWS A
SIMILAR TRACK AND A BIT QUICKER SOLN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS RUN. THE
GEM-NH HAS ALSO SHOWN A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE GFS BUT AGAIN WAS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER LIKE THE ECMWF BUT NOT QUITE AS DEEP. ALL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PCPN ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN
FOR UPPER MI ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE -FZRA AT THE ONSET SUNDAY MORNING IF TEMPS ARE
STILL CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN PCPN BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MODELS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHOWING BEST SURGE OF RAIN INTO UPPER MI LATE SUN
MORNING/AFTN AND CONTINUING SUN NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST MODERATE PCPN
RANGING FROM .25 FAR WEST TO AROUND AN INCH EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED NEAR TRACK
OF SFC LOW.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NNE AND THE COLUMN COOLS UNDER FALLING
HEIGHTS...MODELS INDICATE DEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD PCPN SHIELD
DEVELOPING. THE FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE STRENGTH AND
PERSISTENCE OF THIS DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD AND WHERE IT WILL SET
UP. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGARD WHICH
WILL BE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER
DEFINED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD THAN EITHER THE GFS OR GEM-NH. WITH
850MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -12C BY 00Z TUE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY. SO AFTER THE RAIN ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...STILL
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
NW WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND EHWO GRIDS. THE
SNOW/WIND WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA AS WELL...BUT WITH
DEFORMATION PCPN TENDING TO LIFT NE...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHTER THAN OVER THE W.

WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TUE...NW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
TRANSITION TO PURE LES AS TROF SHIFTS E AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS.
WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THERE WILL BE A
DIMINISHING OF LES THRU THE DAY NEAR THE LAKE.

HEADING INTO WED/THU...SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE
ECMWF...SHOW INDICATIONS OF A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE BRINGING A
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF -SN...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND
RENEWED LES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THERE
IS STILL INCONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING/TRACK OF
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS POPS HIGHEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CMX SHOULD SEE CONTINUING -SHSN OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE WINDS BACK MORE
TO THE SW FRIDAY MORNING. SAW AND IWD WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES FRI AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE WHICH WILL STAY INTO FRI EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING TO AT
LEAST 30KTS AND WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TONIGHT. UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND
EXPANDED IT TO ALL BY LSZ265. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AROUND 28.9 INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
     007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ248.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF






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