Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 091208
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
808 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7F WARMER OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI TODAY
WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY...WITH A
LAKE BREEZY LIKELY DEVELOPING SW OF ISQ OFF LAKE MI. THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE CWA...AROUND THE BROAD 500MB
TROUGH...WILL HELP KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FCST. TRACKING THE CURRENT SHOWERS TO THE SE
WOULD HAVE THEM MAINLY OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. THE LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MI COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS LINGERING FOR
A COUPLE MORE HRS THERE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE BEING INDICATED OFF
SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE FCST MODELS OVER N CENTRAL WI THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY STAYING OUT OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL BY 22Z.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN. NEARLY CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. PW
VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 55 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF OF UPPER MI...NEAR 0.5IN...ASSISTING IN COOLING SFC TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THU/THU NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WHILE A SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ON FRI
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WRN
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT BETTER...RESULTING IN GREATER
INSTABILITY. MUCAPES UP TO 400J/KG AND 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT...AND WITH GREATER MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRECIP
CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN FRI. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP /PRIMARILY OVER SCENTRAL
UPPER MI/ ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW AROUND 1500J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS SCENTRAL
UPPER MI WITH AROUND 40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WHILE IT IS
IMPORTANT TO STATE THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SAT.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS...TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS...BUT DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY HANDLE THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW
AS IT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
3C...WITH SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EVEN POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE INITIALLY AT CMX...WITH BKN003.
OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 8-12KTS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
BECOMING NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

LIGHTER WINDS WILL REMAIN...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WILL EXIT EAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
EXITING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
OVER HUDSON BAY...AND ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT SHOULD
DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF





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