Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 040720
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KIWD WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER


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