Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250751
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT WNW FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN A NRN STREAM TROF OVER SE CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY. COLD AIR
THAT HAS EXPANDED UNDER THE SE CANADA TROF AND WARM AIR PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW HAS
RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PER 12Z RAOBS...850MB TEMPS
RANGED FROM -16C AT MOOSONEE TO -10C AT PICKLE LAKE TO 14C AT THE
TWIN CITIES. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 120+KT UPPER JET
EXTENDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC IS AIDING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PCPN TODAY HAS BEEN
DISPLACED FARTHER SW THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE MDT/HEAVY PCPN WHICH HAS STAYED SW AND S OF
THE WI/MI BORDER. ALL DAY...RADAR IMAGERY LOOP HAS SHOWED PCPN
DEVELOPMENT BEING FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SRN MN TO ECNTRL WI. AS A RESULT...MEANINGFUL 850/700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS NOT ABLE TO EXTEND NE INTO UPPER MI. THUS...PCPN
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...INFLUENCE OF THE SE CANADA TROF IS FCST TO RELAX
SOME...ALLOWING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS TO SHIFT E TO ERN
SD/SW MN. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN TO SHIFT NE INTO UPPER MI. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET ALSO BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TO LIFT NE INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE IN BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE
LIFTING PCPN N...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HEAVIER PCPN
STRUGGLES TO SPREAD NE INTO THE FCST AREA.

ON MON...REMNANT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER ERN SD/SW MN
MON MORNING WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS EASTWARD INTO THE
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND LINGERING FGEN WILL KEEP PERIODS
OF RAIN GOING THRU THE DAY. MAY SEE A BREAK OR A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
S...BEFORE DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES.

SINCE RAINFALL TODAY WAS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT/MON. WILL PROBABLY STILL
SEE SOME PERIODS OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL...BUT AMOUNTS TONIGHT/MON ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
POSE ANY WATER ISSUES.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH CLOUDS/FREQUENT
RAIN ON MON...FAVORED THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CONUS.
UPPER LAKES WILL RESIDE WITHIN CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT ON EDGE OF
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH. RESULT IS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER HUDSON
BAY EARLY THIS WEEK WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS IN SIGHT ATTM. IN FACT
IF ANYTHING THE 7-10 DAY PERIOD JUST BEYOND REACH OF THIS FORECAST
POINTS TO MORE COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN AS TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN CONUS EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE GREAT LAKES. EXTRAPOLATING
CPC DAY 8-14 OUTLOOK MADE ON APRIL 24TH SUGGESTS THAT WARMER AIR MAY
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER GREAT LAKES TOWARD MID MAY AND CPC 3-4
WEEK OUTLOOK GOOD THROUGH MID-LATE MAY SIGNALS A SWITCH TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. TIME WILL TELL IF THAT DOES INDEED OCCUR.

LINGERING EFFECTS FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE FEW BUT
COULD SHOW UP AS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL CWA. AT THE LEAST...INCREASED SKY COVER
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH
SHOULD ERODE LOW CLOUDS STEADILY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SMATTERING OF
MID OR HIGH CLOUDS MAY TRY TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
SHOULD TURN INTO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR ALL CWA.

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES REST OF THIS WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG/GUSTY. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF
THE HIGH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COOLEST WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE 50S BY LATE WEEK. PERHAPS MAY SEE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
BUT THAT WOULD ONLY COME FROM AIRMASS MODERATION AS THE OVERALL
TEMPS ALOFT WARM LITTLE. THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WITH THE HIGH
POINTS TO GOING ON LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS
ESPECIALLY INLAND.

CONSENSUS OF MODELS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN
NEXT SUNDAY. PREVIOUS ECMWF DROVE THOSE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS...BUT
LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH SFC-MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING
ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH TREND WITH PRECIP
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG/PERSISTENT/DRY HUDSON BAY HIGH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE RUNNING INTO. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING S OF UPPER MI THRU MON...EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING E ALONG A STALLED FRONT S OF UPPER MI...STRONG E TO NE
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT. OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE
WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS
THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PLAN FOR WINDS OF 20-30KT. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT MORE SO TUE NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL PREVAIL WED...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
MAY OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20KT THU/FRI ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE
AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA



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