Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 012011
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...- NONE -
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...- NONE -



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