Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 122019
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
WRN HUDSON BAY INTO NRN MANITOBA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT NEARING WINNIPEG. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER SHRTWV FROM ERN MN
INTO WRN WI COMBINED WITH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCH) SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM SE MN INTO
CNTRL AND NRN WI. CONVERGENCE ALON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO NEAR 1K J/KG HAS
TRIGGERED ISOLD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM FAR NW DELTA COUNTY INTO NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND FROM CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI INTO THIS
EVENING TIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN WI AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY EXPAND INTO SRN UPPER MI AND POSSIBLE TOWARD
MQT/P53 AS THE WI SHRTWV ADVANCES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING HIGHER
COVERAGE/POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR S/SE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
POSSIBLY ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MANITOBA FRONT/SHRTWV
MOVE INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN FOCUS ARRIVES
WHEN MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED TO 400 J/KG OR LESS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHRA DEPART FROM THE FAR ERN CWA
EARLY...BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH WNW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 6C-8C RANGE...MAX
READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NW
TO SE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA 12Z SUN WITH
A 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER AIR
PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA 12Z MON WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER THE
AREA ON MON. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON MON...EXPECT SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON INTO MON NIGHT.

WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ERN CWA SUN MORNING AND
THEN GO DRY FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. WITH APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON MON...WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN
A FEW PLACES MON WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MON NIGHT...HAVE POPS
DECREASING BACK TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE
COOLING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT FOR SUN
THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AND CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THU
BEFORE PATTERN MODIFICATION TAKES PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AND
AMPLIFICATION BREAKING DOWN. A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z FRI.
WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER AND LOOKS COOL AND
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE WITH
DEPARTING UPPER LOW IN THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIODS WITH SCT DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT...W WINDS MAY GUST OVER 20 KTS AT KCMX AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT IWD/SAW WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING BY LATE SUN MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONGER FRONT AS
STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





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