Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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152
FXUS63 KMQT 191732
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM NE CANADA EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
WEAKENING REMANTS OF THE MID-LVL LOW CIRCULATION CENTER SW OF JAMES
BAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FROM LOW PRES NOW OVER QUEBEC. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
CIRCULATION STILL SUSTAINING SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON THE
MQT RADAR.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. THE ASSOCIATED
DRYING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST AND END OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ONLY A DUSTING TO MAYBE
HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS OF
NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS BEFORE SNOW ENDS THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE AND ASSOC
DRIER AIR WORKING IN FM WEST. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NW WINDS (20 TO 25 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST HALF) AS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL DIMINISH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE (GIVEN PWAT VALUES AT
OR BELOW 0.25IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR)...WHICH INDICATES
VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS...COLDEST INTERIOR
WEST ALONG THE WI BORDER WHERE LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S. ALTHOUGH OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HASN/T STARTED YET...WOULD
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND A HARD FREEZE
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. PERSONS WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT AGAINST A HARD FROST AND/OR
FREEZE AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A 500MB TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW ITSELF WILL GET
AS CLOSE AS JAMES BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC MUCH OF THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
EITHER S CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR
THE RIDGE TO BE SUPPRESSED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A W-E
ORIENTED COLD FRONT SET UP JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS ONTARIO
WILL SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...AND EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING WINDS SHOULD STAY
FAIRLY LIGHT AS YOU NEED TO GO ABOVE 500MB TO GET ANYTHING ABOVE
15KTS. THE COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO
THE AREA...BUT IT/S NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH MORE THAN CLOUD COVER.
MOST MODELS DO SHOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SPRINKLES JUST S OF
MENOMINEE AND LOWER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING FOR UPPER
MI. THIS IS HANDLES WELL IN OUR PREVIOUS FCST...SO LIMITED CHANGES
WILL BE NEEDED. ANY REAL WARM UP WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AS COOL N WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS ON
THURSDAY HOVERING AROUND 2C. 850MB TEMPS MAY GET DOWN TO -3 OR -4C E
BY 12Z FRIDAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S WILL BE COMMON BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE CANADIAN HIGH EDGES TO THE
SE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN. IT WILL END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL /60S TO AROUND 70F/.

THE 500MB RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE SFC RIDGE LINGERS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN
500MB TROUGH DIGGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...LEADING TO A STRONGER SYSTEM OVERALL. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
WILL BE NEARBY AROUND 12Z MONDAY...WITH SW FLOW RETURNING AHEAD OF A
SFC LOW NEARING FROM THE SW. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THIS
LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE N OR S...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF
THE SFC LOW AND NEARING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR AND MIXING AT KIWD AND INTO KCMX AND KSAW MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS NNW GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LOW PRES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY AS HIGH
PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. NNW WINDS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
(HIGHEST EAST HALF) THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH W TO E THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FM THE WEST DECREASING THE
PRES GRADIENT. WED THRROUGH SAT...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...- NONE -
MARINE...VOSS



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