Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 240905
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH
SLIDES JUST SW OF THE CWA TODAY AND A SFC LOW MOVES TO ERN SD BY 12Z
FRI.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND ONLY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE W.

SHOULD START TODAY WITH W-WNW SFC WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND QUICK WARMING DUE TO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE DOMINATING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE SW WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS IS SHOWN BY
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /WILL LESS
THAN 15KTS/ ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10KTS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WILDFIRE CONCERNS
LOWER EVEN AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR E UPPER MI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA TODAY...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CURRENTLY DOMINATES NAMERICA AS A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WELL N INTO NCNTRL CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA DOWN THRU THE ERN CONUS.
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW FOR JULY HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL ROLL EASTWARD...CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND
RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER
NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND
EVENTUALLY OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL
QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN
WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED
TO THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM JULY AVG IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN
AREA. MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FINAL DAYS OF JULY...BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
UPPER LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
COOLEST WEATHER SUN/MON. THE COOL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY
INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST ON RECORD HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION.
AS FOR PCPN...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRI...THEN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
REACH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO THE SW AND W...IT
WOULD SEEM THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE WAVES SHOULD STAY W
AND SW OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY DRY
NOW BRING PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA FRI. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL EVEN CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP A SHORTWAVE FROM CONVECTION IT
DEVELOPS IN ND/MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD FURTHER AID THE SPREAD
OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI FRI DESPITE PCPN OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR FRI TO CHC W AND
SCHC CNTRL IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER/MUCH
GREATER COLUMN MOISTURE THAN TODAY...MID DAY 850MB TEMPS FRI WILL BE
A FEW C HIGHER THAN TODAY. IN THE END...MAX TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW...STILL ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...THAT WILL
BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC
PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY PASSING
THRU THE AREA SUN. AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO...MODELS STILL INDICATE
2 PERIODS OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING...ONE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY. THIS SUGGESTS
THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS WITH THE MAIN RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PCPN...THOUGH THE SECOND PERIOD WILL LIKELY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL
AS FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM NW MN ACROSS NRN WI. ON SAT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN PCPN FCST. WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER CHC
OF PCPN IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...THE
AFTN HRS MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF WAVE. HOWEVER...MAY
STILL END UP WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES UNDER GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT WITH SFC TROFFING OVER THE
AREA. ON SUN...WITH PCPN THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
WITH SFC LOW DROPPING SE OF THE AREA...SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL AS
BRISK NRLY WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT OF
THE 50S UNLESS IT`S WARMER TO START THE DAY BEFORE WINDS REALLY
INCREASE. IN FACT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE N...TEMPS MAY END UP FALLING
SOME DURING THE DAY UNDER STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET
ABOVE 70F.

MON-WED...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGEST TROF AXIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW MON
THRU WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO DROP THRU THE AREA
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA. WHILE
PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH SMALLER SCALE WAVES AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
VERY LOW...THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF THAT SHORTWAVES MAY DROP THRU/NEAR THE AREA BOTH TUE AND
WED...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE MON
UNDER A LINGERING BRISK N TO NW WIND WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS
4-6C. TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST OVER THE E WHERE WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STRONGER. GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR
TUE/WED...BUT TEMPS EVEN ON WED WILL STILL END UP BLO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





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