Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 121949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

HAS BEEN A CLOUDY...COOL...AFTN WITH ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS SLOWLY
EASING FROM WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN TO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ARE
IN VCNTY OF SFC TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA OVER CNTRL WI AND
INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. SFC TROUGH IS TIED INTO H5-H3 TROUGH FM
DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA PER 12Z RAOBS. THOUGH WAVE WAS OPEN THIS
MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND EVEN CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY WHILE
CROSSING NORTHERN WI AND UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEADY MOISTENING ABOVE H9
WITH LIFT OCCURRING H9-H5 AS THE WAVE DEEPENS. RESULTING MOISTENING
BLO H9 SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE IS
ALREADY SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER WEST AND CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
DUE TO COOLER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH. EXPECT AREA OF LGT RAIN MOVING NOW INTO CNTRL WI TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE LGT RAIN ALONG
WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE 40S WILL RESULT IN A DAMP AND CHILLY
EVENING. BASED ON OBS UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST WI SHOWING MINIMAL
RAIN...DOES SEEM THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RAIN...SO KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM IWD TO CMX/P59. ONCE
THE RAIN ARRIVES OVER THE CNTRL CWA...IT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR EVEN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST. TRICKY IN HOW FAR
EAST TO CARRY THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AS THE GEM-REGIONAL INDICATES THAT
ONLY CNTRL CWA WILL BE AFFECTED BY H7 DEFORMATION ON NORTH EDGE OF
CLOSED OFF UPPER TROUGH. OTHER MODELS WERE A BIT MORE GENEROUS IN
SHOWING BETTER FORCING HEADING TO THE EAST CWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WENT WITH SOME LIKELY POPS TOWARD KERY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DID KEEP
HIGHEST POPS OVER CNTRL THIS EVENING...AFFECTING ISHPEMING...
MARQUETTE IRON MOUNTAIN...ESCANABA AND MENOMINEE. ENE WINDS THROUGH
H85 WILL ONLY ADD TO LIFT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL.

DID LOOK INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW FLURRIES MIXING WITH THE
RAIN GIVEN A REPORT EARLIER TODAY OF GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. AND SINCE WE ALSO HAD FLURRIES REPORTED LAST NIGHT
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THURSDAY AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL U.P.
OVERALL FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH IT IS PLENTY COLD ALOFT AS THERMAL
TROUGH AT H7-H5 IS PRESENT WITH H5 TEMPS DOWN TO -30C AND THERE WILL
BE ICE CRYSTALS GENERATED ALOFT...WBZERO HEIGHTS OF 1500-2000 AGL ARE
TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT ANY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. IF WE SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS
WITHIN THE STEADIER RAIN AREA...SUPPOSE SOME GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR.

BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS...DROPPED POPS OVER CNTRL CWA
BTWN 09Z-12Z AS SUPPORT FOR MID LEVEL LIFT CUTS OUT BY THAT TIME ONCE
THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST. LINGERED AT LEAST LOW CHANCES TIL
AROUND 12Z IN FAR EAST CWA AT KERY THOUGH. THINNING CLOUDS FOR CNTRL
AND EAST CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKIES TO STAY BKN-OVC THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FARTHER WEST...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING OR MAYBE AS LATE AS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS AGAIN ARE
DOWN TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL AND UPSTREAM DWPNTS IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA ARE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...SO SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF
CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. NOT QUITE SURE ON EXTENT OF
CLEARING THOUGH. MINS DROPPING TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST DOES SEEMS LIKELY SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVY FOR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING
THOUGH AS NOT COMPLETELY SURE THAT SKIES WILL TOTALLY CLEAR OUT
AS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL ONLY SLOWLY BE FILLING. DID NOT
BRING DICKINSON OR MARQUETTE INTO THE FROST ADVISORY RIGHT NOW
THINKING THERE WILL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT TO PROHIBIT
IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING.

IMPROVING TREND EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST IN
THE MORNING AS STRONGEST H5-H3 WINDS SLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
MID TO UPR RIDGING WORKS IN BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD STILL BE FAIR
AMOUNT OF 5-8KFT STRATOCU LEFTOVER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TRAPPING
THE MOISTURE. ONSHORE FLOW MOST PRONOUCED IN THE MORNING NEAR LK
SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT-MUNISING. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO H9-H875
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. EVEN IF THE LOW
CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT...SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT
WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE SAT MORNING. BEHIND THE TROUGH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN PART AS
A RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. ANY
LINGERING SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA EARLY SAT MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN RESPONSE TO
RDGG/SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. SHOULD STILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
LINGERING DIURNAL SC OVER INLAND AREA ON SAT DESPITE HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD AS 8H TEMPS REMAIN AOB 0C THROUGH MIDDAY RESULTING IN STEEP
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
NIGHT ESPECALLY EAST...BUT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
AHEAD ALONG WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND ASSOC MIXING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING.

ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE AREA IN A FAST
WNW FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST MOISTURE
AND UPWARD MOTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. MODELS CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT LIGHT PCPN
WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD PCPN
FROM REACHING THE ERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PCPN WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR THE EXTENDED...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PERSIST OVER
HUDSON BAY TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING A NW FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
QUIET. NOT AS MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY COOLED OFF
INTO THE MID 40S AND MODELS HAVE COLDEST 8H TEMPS AT 0-1C...EQUATING
TO A LAKE DELTA-T OF ONLY 8-9C. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING
NW FLOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE MOST CONSISTENT SO WILL TEND TO
FAVOR ITS TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. SINCE
MODELS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL STAY NE OF REGION...WL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS MAINLY FOR WED NIGHT FOR POST FRONTAL SHRA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN BKN VFR CLOUDS THICKENING TO A LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK BY
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN...WITH MINIMAL VSBY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS EVENING. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AT KIWD
LATE TONIGHT...BUT A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN AT KCMX AND
KSAW TIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

WINDS MAINLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ002>004-009-010-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



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