Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 262054
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
454 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED UPPER MI FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER IS NOW CENTERED SE OF JAMES BAY AND IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT
E. UPSTREAM...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AND DEPARTING
THERMAL TROF RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY COPPER HARBOR TO MARQUETTE TO IRON
MTN. TO THE W...ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM THE PACIFIC NW FOREST
FIRES IS ONCE AGAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH LEADING
EDGE APPROACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR NW WI.

SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD
ON THU. MAIN FCST ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS/TEMPS AND
FROST/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CERTAINLY CONCERN THAT CLEARING MAY NOT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH SE
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER AND EITHER HOLD CLOUDS IN OVER THE E OR
BRING THEM BACK. FOR NOW...THE PLAN IS FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO
CONTINUE MIXING OUT THE MOISTURE FROM THE W AND AID THE CURRENT SE
CLEARING TREND...HELPING IT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
STAY E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT OF THE
ERN FCST AREA BY SUNSET...SKIES PROBABLY WON`T CLEAR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. LEANED
FCST SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD BOTH BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS FOR
MINS DUE TO THEIR USUAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. EXPECT THE NORMAL COLD AREAS IN THE INTERIOR TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS DOWN INTO THE MID
30S. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FROST IN THE FCST. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP AS WELL NEAR RIVERS/STREAMS/LAKES/SWAMPY AREAS.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DRIFT E. WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH SKY WILL LIKELY BE HAZY WITH ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WITH MORNING 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C AND RISING
1-2C DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODERATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TRANSITION
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND 850-700
MB WAA DEVELOPS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND
TO AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.

FRI THROUGH SAT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS.  THE
GFS...GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OR BRING RAIN TO
MOST OF THE AREA. THE FCST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS AND REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY WITH INCREASING POPS THAT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD ARRIVE MAINLY FRI NIGHT AND LINGER
OVER THE ERN CWA AT LEAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THERE MAY ENOUGH
HEATING/INSTABILITY FRI FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF TSRA...BUT MOST OF
THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL NOT HAVE TS...PER GFS/ECMWF
INSTABILITY PROGS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FROM MON
THROUGH WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY CLEARED
OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THERE THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX/KSAW...MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT FOR NOW...INCLUDED MVFR VIS LATE TONIGHT ONLY AT
KSAW WITH CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE AT THAT TERMINAL. ITS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH DRIFTS E
ON THU...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT THOUGH LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
E TO SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN IN THE VCNTY OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 20KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON


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