Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 210639
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA






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