Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 210825
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACRS THE CONUS WITH A STRONGER W-E POLAR BRANCH FLOW NEAR THE
CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF A WEAKER SRN BRANCH OVER THE SCENTRAL
STATES. SHRTWV RDG EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR BRANCH AND OVER NE MN/NW
ONTARIO AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS ARE
BRINGING DRY WX TO UPR MI THIS MRNG EXCEPT OVER FAR SRN MENOMINEE
COUNTY...WHERE SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE NRN EDGE OF
RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR STRUNG W-E THRU THE CENTRAL LKS AND SAMPLED BY
THE FAIRLY MOIST 00Z GRB RAOB. MORE WDSPRD SHRA/EMBEDDED TS ARE
PRESENT OVER SW WI/FAR SE MN UNDER DEEPER MSTR/SOME UPR DVGC AHEAD
OF DISTURBANCE ON THE NRN EDGE OF SRN BRANCH FLOW. ALTHOUGH COLDER
CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPANDING TOWARD THE WI BORDER TO THE NE OF THESE
SHOWERS...THE LOWER LVL W FLOW OF VERY DRY AIR FM THE DIRECTION OF
MPX IS LIMITING THE N SPREAD OF THE SHRA LOCATED JUST S OF THAT RAOB
SITE. OTRW...SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
CWA AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVED OVER LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT SEE
SGNFT LLVL DRYING YDAY AFTN. OVER THE W WHERE SFC DEWPTS MIXED OUT
AS LO AS 25-30 AT IWD ON SUN AND TEMPS ARE STILL ABV 32 AT MOST
SPOTS...THERE IS LTL IF ANY FOG. A MUCH STRONGER SHRTWV IN THE POLAR
BRANCH FLOW IS NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND MOVING STEADILY TO THE E. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME LGT STRIKES IN MANITOBA RIGHT
UNDER THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO THE CORE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
BUT SINCE THIS SHRTWV IS CUTOFF FM THE MOISTER AIRMASS TO THE S...
THERE IS ONLY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN EARLY THIS MRNG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE FOG EARLY THIS MRNG AND
THEN PCPN CHCS LATER TODAY/TNGT AS POLAR BRANCH SHRTWV/ATTENDANT
COLD FNT IMPACT UPR MI.

TODAY...EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MRNG OVER THE
SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT INCRSG HI CLDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WDSPRD DENSE FOG. WL ISSUE AN SPS TO ALERT THE PUBLIC TO LOCALLY
REDUCED VSBYS. SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG IS FCST TO MOVE E THRU NW
ONTARIO AND DRAG IT ATTENDANT COLD FNT ACRS UPR MI THIS AFTN. SINCE
BULK OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE N AND JUST
BRUSH THE NRN LAND CWA...SUSPECT ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WL ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA. ALMOST ALL THE MODELS THAT WERE SHOWING A GREATER
INTERACTION BTWN THIS SHRTWV/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S AND SGNFT
EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/SHOWERS INTO UPR MI HAVE RETREATED A BIT FM
THIS FCST...A REASONABLE TREND CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY NATURE OF
THE 00Z MPX RAOB AND LACK OF SGNFT BACKING OF THE UPR FLOW FM THE W
THRU THE DAY. THE 00Z HI RES CNDN MODEL SHOWS THE HEAVIER PCPN
OVERSPREADING MOST OF UPR MI ALONG WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE MIXED LYR
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. FCST SDNGS FM THIS MODEL SHOW FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
MOISTENING THRU THE LOWER TROP WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING TO ARND
55...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM RSNBL IN THE ABSENCE OF A DEEPER SW FLOW.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWS MORE MODEST MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
SCENTRL. WL CARRY THE HIER CHC POPS THIS AFTN WHERE THIS MODEL SHOWS
THE GREATER INSTABILITY UP TO 700-800 J/KG OVER THE SCNTRL. INCLUDED
A SCHC OF TS IN THIS AREA AS WELL GIVEN ARRIVAL OF COLD FNT DURING
PEAK HEATING TIME THAT WL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL AGAIN IN THE
PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS NOT FAR FM 10C AND AWAY FM THE MODERATING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. COOLER AIR WL ARRIVE OVER THE W LATER IN THE
DAY FOLLOWING THE FROPA.

TNGT...NW FLOW WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 25-35 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FROPA WL DRIVE COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT. MODELS
SHOW H85 TEMPS SINKING AS LO AS -7 TO -8C OVER THE W BY 12Z TUE.
WHILE THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WL NOT BE COLD ENUF FOR LK EFFECT
PCPN...MODELS DO SHOW SOME LLVL MOISTENING BLO STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H85 UNDER THE LARGE SCALE QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. GOING FCST SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE/FRZG
DRIZZLE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN WITH MOISTENING/INVRN BASE BLO THE
DGZ. THIS FCST SEEMS RSNBL...BUT DID ADD SOME FLURRIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A SERIES OF FAIRLY ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS
OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CAN`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS DEVELOPING/CLOSING OFF AND
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION DOWN. IF SO...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
HAPPENS...SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD BE IN THE OFFING ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE SEASON SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES MON NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVING WED. ON ITS HEELS
WILL BE THE NEXT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WRN CONUS TUE. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK...THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH A NRN
STREAM WAVE DROPPING S THRU CNTRL CANADA. DEPENDING ON WHERE/WHEN
THE INTERACTION BTWN THE 2 WAVES OCCURS...PTYPE COULD BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE DURING THE PRIMARY PUSH OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE. FEATURES INVOLVED
ARE CERTAINLY FAR ENOUGH OUT IN THE FCST CYCLE FOR IMPORTANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO OCCUR. IN ANY EVENT...THE INFUSION OF THE NRN STREAM
WAVE WILL RESULT IN A DUMP OF COLDER AIR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST...
THERE ARE HINTS FLOW COULD BECOME QUITE BLOCKY ACROSS CANADA WHICH
MAY HOLD COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA.
SO...TEMPS NEXT WEEK ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL RANGE RATHER THAN ABOVE NORMAL. KEEP IN MIND NORMALS NEXT
WEEK ARE GENERALLY 50S N TO LOW/MID 60S S.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING
THRU THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE EXITING THE E IN THE EVENING. UNDER CAA
REGIME MON NIGHT...NAM/GFS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE N/NNW WIND UPLSOPE AREAS...WHICH
RAISES THE PROSPECT FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP AS MOISTURE DOES
NOT EXTEND TO -10C ISOTHERM. LOW CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL HAPPEN... BUT
THE E WOULD BE MOST FAVORED.

AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND THEN LIKELY A PERIOD
OF BKN CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN UNDER 850MB
THERMAL TROF...SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTN AS MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. N TO NW GRADIENT WIND AIDED BY LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. WELL INLAND...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER LATE APR SUNSHINE.

IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SETS UP TUE NIGHT UNDER SFC HIGH
PRES AND CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 40-60PCT OF NORMAL WILL
AID THE COOLING PROCESS. FAVORED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY WHERE DECENT SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST. TRADITIONAL
COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP INTO THE TEENS.

SFC HIGH PRES SLIPS E WED. ALTHOUGH 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW PCPN
REACHING WRN UPPER MI LATE IN THE DAY WED ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE CUTTING THRU MID/UPPER RIDGE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THRU THE
AFTN AS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT EMANATING FROM DEPARTING
SFC HIGH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. 12Z RUNS HAVE
SLOWED EASTWARD PCPN PROGRESSION...SO DRY FCST SEEMS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

DESPITE COMPLEXITIES IN THE FLOW REGIME...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE W
COAST TUE AND REACHING THE GREAT LAKES FRI. WITH PUSH OF STRONGEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVING THU...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE USED AT
THAT TIME AS AN AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
GEM/ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C WED NIGHT THRU THU ON
FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
WARM FOR ONLY RAIN GIVEN THAT IT`S LATE APR. STILL...IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE INTERACTION IT HAS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF SYSTEM TO RESULT IN ANOTHER LATE SEASON SNOW FOR
THE W AND N HIGHER TERRAIN. TODAYS 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH
THE MIDLEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT/FRI.
IF VALID...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH DEFORMATION
PCPN SHIELD IMPACTING WRN AND NRN UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI.

ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL WIND DOWN/END SAT AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
E. TEMPS SAT WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL IN THE 30S N TO LOW/MID 40S
SCNTRL. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IS EXPECTED SUN AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

THE BIG FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW
WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOIST (IN THE LOWER 40S). HAVE
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE TIMING ON THE FOG AND
INTENSITY. KIWD MAY NOT SEE MUCH FOG TONIGHT AS LIGHT DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. THE CONCERN AT
KCMX IS WHETHER DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
DESPITE WEAK UPSLOPE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. SINCE THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KCMX IS ONLY 2F STILL THINK PREVAILING IFR
VBSY IS A GOOD BET FOR THE 07-14Z TIME FRAME. KSAW SHOULD HAVE THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY TO FALL TO LIFR/PERHAPS VLIFR/BLO LANDING MINS BASED
ON LOWER 40S DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT THE FOG TO
BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES AND SOME MID CLOUDS
APPROACH TOWARDS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND
TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS
TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR INVADES THE UPPER LAKES. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE UNDER THE SHARPER GRADIENT/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MENTIONED SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS OVER THE ECENTRAL FOR
NOW. THESE STONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE
AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT
SHARPENS AGAIN...INCREASING SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LO...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGHEST SNOW DEPTH REPORTED YESTERDAY MORNING OF 32IN AT MOHAWK WAS
ABLE TO DROP DOWN TO 28IN BY LATE EVENING. AT THE OTHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM...SEVERAL SITES FROM IWD THROUGH ISQ WERE REPORTING LITTLE
TO NO SNOW. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MELTING...AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
MELT WILL SLOW TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT OVER N UPPER MI AS COLD N-NNW
WINDS KEEP TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S TUESDAY. AS FOR
FURTHER OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO NOTICE SIGNIFICANT STREAM/RIVER RISES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE 0.75-1IN OF
LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD
RIVER.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER
IN DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF




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