Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 070839
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...WITH TYPICAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE AND PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG OR S/SW OF THE WRN AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THESE LOCATIONS
FOR THE BEST POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CONTINUED TO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED THAN WITH
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE...SO CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF EVEN LOWER POPS
/SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE/ DURING THIS TIME.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE MORE LIMITED WITH TIME...SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S /OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S/ INLAND ON FRI.

MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. SUN COULD SEE SOME PRECIP IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES
IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CWA...BUT THE GFS HAS A DRY
FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES MON MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND BRINGS SOME MID
CLOUDS MON NIGHT AND PUT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD MON EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS





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