Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201901
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
ANOTHER OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GETTING INTO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE WESTERLIES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST A BIT MORE DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE
RING OF FIRE SCENARIO AND ANY LITTLE SHORTWAVE COULD SET OFF
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE THROUGH MONDAY THAT THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVES PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNTIL A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AND AFFECTS THE AREA
MON NIGHT.

NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THROUGH MON WITH
MAJORITY OF MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AS LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM MN TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH AND GIVE THE KEWEENAW MAINLY A GLANCING BLOW. ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY AGAIN FOR MON AFTERNOON TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. MADE A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES. THE REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN NRN MN LATE THIS
AFTN OR EVENING MAY REACH NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AT CMX. CHANCE IS
SO LOW FOR RIGHT NOW...DO NOT HAVE IT IN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY STANNARD ROCK TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY
DEVELOP/EXPAND OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





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