Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 202349
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
749 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE FRONT NOW THROUGH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD ENHANCING CONVERGENCE OVER
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.  WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SENEY STRETCH AND TO THE EAST. THEY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH THIS WAVE. AS CONVECTION IGNITES
ALONG IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO GRAZE THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WISCONSIN LINE. WILL TRIM BACK POP FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN
AREAS REMAINING DRY. NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE FAVORED NORTH
CENTRAL TERRAIN.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PRETTY CHILLY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TRANQUIL PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE
U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.5 WHICH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE ONE ISSUE COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO WITH THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOTH THE EC/GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
PUSHING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AT
BEST THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 14C GIVING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE GFS/EC HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE
EC BRINGING IN SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH THE CONTINUED
VARYING SOLUTIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BAND OF SHRA PUSHING THRU NE MN INTO NW WI MAY SURVIVE TO REACH KIWD
IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND...ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH MENTION. OTHERWISE...LOW CIGS ARE NOTED ON OBS N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THERE INDICATIONS OF SOME FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL. AS N TO NE WINDS LOCK IN TONIGHT...EXPECT
KIWD AND KSAW TO FALL TO IFR. WITH MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
KSAW AND WITH FOG NOTED OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO...
CIGS AT KSAW MAY EVEN FALL TO LIFR LATER TONIGHT. AT KCMX...FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LURKING AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY OCCASIONALLY RESULT
IN MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. UNDER
LESS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NE WINDS...ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT KCMX
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...ALL
TERMINALS WILL TREND UP TO VFR ON SUN WITH KSAW THE LAST TO
IMPROVE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO GALES SEEN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT
WIND COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE COULD BE WINDS CLOSE TO GALES
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY FOR A BRIEF
TIME ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MZ






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