Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
315 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BUSY SHORT TERM SHIFT AS NEW MODEL RUNS LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDERS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THU.

WITH LITTLE LASTING UPPER JET SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UP THE W SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W TONIGHT INTO THU...BUT WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT
PRECIP EVEN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS FILLS.

CURRENTLY...MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SWRN CWA...WHICH IS
BEING FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID LEVEL /600-700MB/ FGEN.
THIS PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FORCING STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
INTO SERN SD WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. DRIER AIR
AND LIMITED FORCING IS LEAVING AREAS S OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL AND
SRN WI DRY /OR AT LEAST MOSTLY DRY/. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO
WCENTRAL WI BY 12Z THU...THE BEST BAND OF LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRECIP
MINIMUM MOVES N BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CWA /MOSTLY THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA/. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE SCENTRAL CWA THU
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WRN CWA...BUT A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WILL BE FORCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 800-700MB FGEN/DEFORMATION. OVERALL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST INCLUDED SLOWING DOWN THE ENDING OF PRECIP THU AND
INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AND
INTO THU OVER THE ERN CWA. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP AMOUNTS ALL THAT
MUCH...BUT DID SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN CWA. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED THE HEADLINES
TO 18Z THU.

MIXED PRECIP BECOMES AN ISSUE THU AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE...BUT THIS HAPPENS TOWARD THE END OF PRECIP SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. USED CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EXTENT/TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.

KIWD...EXPECTED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVEMENT START THURSDAY MORNING.

KCMX...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND WILL STAY POOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KSAW...HAVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS DRY AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER
BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ006-012-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON






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