039
FXUS61 KBTV 120458
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1258 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue for the next few days, generally
becoming more prevalent during the days and diminishing a bit during
the nights. Despite the many days of showers, the rain will not be
enough to very impactful. Temperatures will generally be at or below
normal. Steadier rain looks to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EDT Sunday...Minor tweaks needed to temps/pops and
sky cover, but overall fcst remains on track. Radar is showing
some light rain shower activity acrs the central/southern CPV
into parts of northern NY. Have continued with chc/likely pops
to cover this activity. Temps have been holding on the warmer
side of the fcst, so have bumped hourly values and lows up
several degrees, given the clouds/precip. Lows range from near
40F NEK/SLK to near 50F CPV. Rest of fcst in good shape.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating has caused a few low-
topped convective showers to develop, mostly across northern New
York and the Champlain Valley. The strongest storms can have
lightning and pea sized hail, but the vast majority of the
showers have neither of those features. The showers will
generally continue with their current coverage through the
afternoon before beginning to dissipate this evening. They will
most likely be lighter, more scattered, and confined to parts of
northern New York tonight. Clouds have developed across the
region during the day and will continue into the evening. They
should partially dissipate across the Northeast Kingdom this
evening where the 5000-1000 ft RH is lower and where the clouds
are almost completely the result of the diurnal heating. These
factors should allow a brief period later this evening where
aurora viewing might be possible, before clouds move in from the
west later in the night. The extent of this clearing is very
uncertain. Western Vermont and northern New York look to be too
much in the influence of an approaching shortwave where the lack
of diurnal heating will likely will not be enough to cause the
clouds to dissipate. Lows tonight will be in the 40s. The
shortwave will pass over the region tomorrow and bring more
daytime showers, though they will not be as confined to western
areas. This shortwave passes to the east Sunday Night and brief
ridging should cause it to be dry. For two days of on and off
showers, QPF is relatively light. It ranges from a few hundreths
of an inch over eastern Vermont to around a half inch over
northern New York. Areas that see the heavier showers will
receive locally more and areas that miss the heaviest showers
will receive locally less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled weather is expected across the
region at the start of the week. Monday morning will start off on
the dry side due to weak upper level ridging, before rain associated
with an incoming warm front arrives in northern New York sometime in
the late morning to early afternoon, marking the start of some
widespread, wetting rainfall across the region. Temperatures during
the day will be seasonable, generally in the 60s. Overnight lows
will be mild due to abundant cloud cover, with temperatures in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...The unsettled weather continues into the
middle of next week, with an upper low located over Quebec and
associated frontal boundary bringing widespread precipitation to the
region. There is a little uncertainty with where the axis of
heaviest rainfall will set up, with deterministic guidance in slight
disagreement. Model sounding are not overly supportive with CAPE
values less than 200 J/kg across most of the area, a rumble or two
of thunder is not out of the question during the day on Tuesday,
especially if clouds are able to clear out during the morning to
allow for more diurnal heating. While ensemble guidances supports
rainfall amounts less than an inch, precipitable water values will
approach 1.25 inches, near the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding
climatology for Albany, so trends will be something to monitor with
future forecasts. Precipitation should begin to taper off towards
Wednesday evening as the upper low shifts to the east. Temperatures
will be seasonable during the day on Tuesday, with highs in the 60s.
Overnight lows will continue to be mild with lingering cloud cover,
in the 40s to mid 50s. Heading into the later half of next week, a
brief period of dry weather looks to build in across the region,
with high temperatures warming into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Unsettled weather continues for the next 6
to 12 hours associated with a slow moving upper level area of
low pres over western NY. Scattered to numerous showers are
anticipated again today, with greater areal coverage, but
vis/cigs mostly in the VFR range. Some lowering of cigs may
produce MVFR conditions at times, especially SLK toward 10z this
morning, with some potential at MPV/RUT and MSS. Showers
decrease in areal coverage toward 00z Monday, with mostly VFR
conditions prevailing. Winds are south/southeast 4 to 8 knots
this morning and become light and variable as center of low pres
tracks just to our south today. There is a <10% chance of a
rumble or two of thunder today, but prob and confidence is too
low to mention at any given taf site attm.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber