985
FXUS61 KILN 121047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move off to the east tonight
and Monday. Low pressure will move out of the Ozarks and track
east across Kentucky Monday night through Wednesday resulting in
unsettled conditions across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure extends across the area. There will be a good
deal of sun with just a few cumulus developing. Temperatures
will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tail end of a weak short wave passing across the Great Lakes
will brush by the area this evening. This could keep some clouds
in northern counties before clearing after midnight.

Surface ridge axis will be in place to the east of the area but
its influence will persist well into Monday. The mid level ridge
axis will translate eastward during the day which will then
allow increasing mid and upper level moisture to stream into the
area during the afternoon. While primary forcing will still be
west of the region through the end of the day, cannot rule out a
few showers developing into western counties, primarily along
and west of I-75.

Modest warming trend will continue with lows in the lower to mid
50s and highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure advancing from Missouri to Kentucky will bring
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
Severe weather appears unlikely from an environment containing less
than 500 J/KG CAPE and relatively weak winds aloft. Showers will
diminish Tuesday night and Wednesday as the system moves east, while
northerly winds gust over 20 knots. Thursday looks to be dry under a
ridge of high pressure. A frontal boundary will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A few more showers and storms
will be possible on Saturday in residual moisture behind the front.

Temperature forecast starts near normal with highs in the low to mid
70s Tuesday, with highs perhaps a degree or two cooler on Wednesday
under the northerly flow. A modest warming trend is indicated for
the rest of the period, resulting in highs in the mid and upper 70s
in most locations, with 80 possible on Saturday near the Ohio River.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail through much of the period. There may be few
high based cumulus. Late in the period, there will be the
potential for some localized river fog affecting KLUK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely Monday night
into Wednesday, with a period of IFR ceilings and visibilities
possible. Thunderstorms will also be possible Monday into
Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...