412
FXUS64 KOUN 090507
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The cold front continues its progress eastward early this afternoon,
with a moist and very unstable airmass in place ahead of the
boundary. Expect convective initiation to occur in the next one to
two hours as the boundary reaches our far southeastern counties.
With upwards of 4000+ MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of bulk shear, any
storm that develops will have the potential to quickly become
severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main
threats with these storms, with a very low tornado risk given
veering surface winds ahead of the boundary. Storms are expected
to quickly exit our area to the east by 7-8 pm, with dry
conditions then expected for the entire area overnight.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Dry and mild conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday
for the majority of the area as the front stalls to our south. The
boundary will remain in close enough proximity to our southern
counties to retain a low chance (20-30%) for storm development
tomorrow afternoon, with enough instability and shear lingering
for a marginal risk of mainly large hail with this activity.

Better chances for more widespread showers and storms will arrive
Saturday night through Monday as a closed upper low pushes slowly
eastward across our area. Ahead of this feature, modest moisture
return is expected which could lead to enough instability across
our southern counties for an outside shot at some strong to severe
thunderstorms, but the overall risk appears fairly low for much
of the rest of our area.

Showers and storms could potentially linger into the day on Tuesday,
depending on the speed of the upper low. Models then show another
potential system impacting the area Wednesday into Thursday, which
could bring another shot of showers and thunderstorms.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty
northeasterly winds are forecast to develop by the late morning,
especially at terminals along and south of Interstate 40.
Potential exists for strong/severe thunderstorm development near
the Red River vicinity by early afternoon, though impact to the
SPS/DUA terminals remains low probability at this update. PROB30
groups were included to cover this potential.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  54  76  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         53  78  54  78 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  56  77  55  77 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           48  77  51  79 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     51  76  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         58  78  55  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...34