264
FXUS65 KPSR 071110
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
410 AM MST Tue May 7 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue for the rest of the week with an
increase in winds today and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain
near normal through around Friday before rising to above normal
over the weekend into early next week when afternoon highs may
climb to around 100 degrees across parts of the lower deserts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern will become somewhat stagnant across the
region over the next several days as the upper level low which is
currently centered over the Northern Plains retrogrades back to
the southwest. For today, a shortwave trough is forecast to slide
southeastward down the back side of the large scale trough
reinvigorating the southwest portion of the trough. This will help
to bring an increase in winds over much of the area starting this
afternoon with gusts into a 20-25 mph range. By late tonight into
early Wednesday morning, a weak dry cold front is expected to push
southward down the Lower CO River Valley. This should lead to an
increase in winds behind the front during the morning hours across
portions of southeast California and far western Arizona with
occasional gusts upwards of 30-35 mph. Elsewhere on Wednesday,
wind gusts in the afternoon are likely to again reach to near 25
mph at times.

After a couple days of cooler temperatures, readings today are
forecast to warm back into a normal range, mostly into the upper
80s to the lower 90s across the lower deserts. Behind the weak
cold front on Wednesday, temperatures should dip a few degrees
across the western deserts, but will again top out around 90
degrees in the Phoenix area.

Model ensemble guidance is now mostly in agreement the
retrograding upper low will settle somewhere just to our north by
Thursday and then likely remain fairly stationary into the coming
weekend. This pattern evolution will help to keep temperatures
from warming any further for a few days with readings likely
remaining right around seasonal normals through at least Friday.
For the coming weekend, guidance shows the upper low weakening
enough that temperatures will trend upward with highs climbing
into the mid to possibly upper 90s. At some point early next week,
we may see the upper level ridge fully move over our region.
However, heights aloft are not likely to get much of a boost and
it may only raise temperatures another couple degrees, or right
near 100 degrees. Either way, continued dry conditions are heavily
favored into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1110Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No significant weather issues will exist through tonight under
clear skies. Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal
patterns, with light easterly winds this morning becoming west to
southwest during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Occasional gustiness 20-25 kts is expected during the late
afternoon hours. Winds will weaken going into the overnight hours,
with easterly winds returning after midnight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather issues will exist through tonight under clear skies.
Light winds, favoring the southerly direction will continue into
the afternoon hours. Some gustiness out of the south to 20 kts
expected to develop at BLH during the afternoon hours, with late
afternoon/evening gusts picking up out of the westerly direction
at IPL 20-25 kts. Winds will then subside going into the overnight
hours, but will continue to favor a westerly direction.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will prevail through at least mid week with
another round of breezy conditions starting today and lasting
through Wednesday. Wind gusts this afternoon will commonly
reaching to around 20 mph areawide before stronger gusts of up to
30-35 mph will be possible Wednesday morning into the early
afternoon across the Lower CO River Valley. Elsewhere on
Wednesday, afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 mph will be likely.
MinRHs both days will be in the 5-10% range across the lower
deserts to around 10-15% over higher terrain areas, with
overnight recoveries between 20-40%. Winds during the latter half
of the week will return to more typical seasonal trends with
daily afternoon gusts up to around 20 mph and temperatures near
normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman