Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
312 FNUS74 KEPZ 141347 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Slaughter Mesa RX, Chiminea Unit...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 747 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 MDT on May 14. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Ventilation becoming Good after 10AM today, with transport winds from the WSW at 10-15 mph. Light and spotty rain showers again this afternoon across Catron County. Light and variable winds overnight. Very similar weather conditions on Wednesday with a slight uptick in west flow mid-afternoon. Lightning risk is minimal. Winds shifting to the northwest Thursday/Friday. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 43. Max humidity........57 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening and overnight becoming light. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph shifting to the north around 7 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Good (98200 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (4000 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........53 53 53 19 19 19 9 9 9 42 42 42 Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE Weather type.... Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............65 61 56 54 52 50 48 47 46 45 44 43 RH..............24 28 35 38 39 42 46 47 49 53 53 55 20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 4 4 20 FT wind gust.17 17 17 14 14 14 10 10 10 8 8 8 Mix hgt (kft)...7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW NW N N N N Transp wind spd.14 14 14 14 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..98 98 98 98 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 Ventrate Cat....GD GD GD GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 68. Min humidity........19 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 5 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the west in the afternoon. Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (108100 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........62 62 62 58 58 58 65 65 65 69 69 69 Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............43 46 50 54 58 61 63 65 67 68 68 67 RH..............57 49 44 36 32 27 23 21 19 20 20 23 20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 8 10 10 10 20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 12 12 12 16 16 16 18 18 18 Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 11 11 11 11 Transp wind dir.N N N N SW SW SW SW W W W W Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 9 9 9 9 13 13 13 13 Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..15 15 15 15 85 85 85 85 108 108 108 108 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY... Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds around 9 mph. .FRIDAY... Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 70. West winds around 9 mph. .SATURDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 9 mph. $$ Forecaster...DENNHARDT Requested by...Francesca Chavez Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414008.1/EPZ .DELDT 05/14/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov