754
ACUS01 KWNS 101944
SWODY1
SPC AC 101943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain
possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

...Discussion...
Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for
current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook
appear to be required at this time.

..Goss.. 05/10/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

...Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move
southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying
surface cold front.  Surface heating in the wake of debris
cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front.  Thunderstorm
development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of
the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern
SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward
through this evening.  The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level
lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel
flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail
of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of
supercells and line segments.

...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening...
The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off
the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to
the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool.
There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from
the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening
later this afternoon.  Additional storm development along the
outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain,
given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to
west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only
weak/shallow ascent along the boundary.  Overall, any lingering
severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon.

...Upper MS Valley...
A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig
southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening.
Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening
low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will
support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through
late evening.  The stronger storms will be capable of producing
isolated wind damage

...Edwards Plateau in TX today...
Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the
north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited
where storm formation is more probable.  As such, severe storms
appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico
are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international
border).

$$