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000
FXUS65 KABQ 122340 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail Saturday and Sunday
amongst well above normal temperatures. Strong winds and the
potential for high fire danger take hold on Monday ahead of an
incoming disturbance. The system`s associated cold front will
bring markedly cooler temperatures Monday afternoon, with highs 7
to 15 degrees below Sunday`s readings. Isolated to widely
scattered rain and snow showers will favor the extreme northern
terrain. A warming trend takes hold Tuesday through Wednesday
amongst breezy to windy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

South/southwest winds will continue strengthening thru late this
afternoon while a weak shortwave trough slides northeast thru the
Four Corners. The stronger 700mb winds currently over southeast AZ
will spread northeast across NM thru sunset today while surface low
pressure deepens to near 1004mb over northeast NM. Deep mixing with
warm temps may tap into the stronger winds aloft to create a brief
windy period with wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph in the RGV and
high plains of eastern NM. Some localized blowing dust is possible.
Winds will remain elevated this evening while the low level airmass
is slow to decouple after above normal max temps in the 70s and 80s.
Meanwhile, just enough moisture and instability will be present to
allow a thicker mid level cloud deck to spread across northwest NM
late this afternoon into the evening. High-based showers may enhance
gusty winds with DCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Skies are expected to
clear again tonight with winds relaxing after midnight. Min temps
will trend warmer than last night as well.

Saturday and Sunday trended less windy as model dProg/dT charts are
slowing the approach of the H5 low over California. This allows for
a weak shortwave ridge to spend a little more time cresting over NM.
Mid and upper level flow is split with a 30-40 kt subtropical speed
max deflected into the Permian Basin and another stationary over AZ.
Conditions will still be breezy but less than previously expected.
Max temps Saturday and Sunday are also 5 to 10F above normal with
very low humidity so a very pleasant mid April weekend is in store.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

After splitting Sunday, the upper low reorganizes as it skirts
the northern border of the Desert Southwest Sunday night,
deepening in its travels through Monday morning. Timing and
placement continue to be paramount in determining the magnitude of
winds Monday afternoon as the system pushes eastward. While wind
speeds continue to fluctuate, confidence for advisory to warning
level velocities remains high. Uncertainty continues to exist on
where the highest winds will focus, as the placement of the
synoptic pattern itself is still being dialed in by short and
medium-range models. A stout H7 jet with winds above 60 kts has
shifted to favor the Manzano and Sacramento Mts earlier in the day
than previous runs. This would potentially lead to a lower high-
end wind speed across the eastern plains during the afternoon as
the jet would not line up with peak mixing. That said, the deep
986mb sfc low in eastern CO remains a player and will lead to
very windy conditions as it creates an impressive pressure
gradient between CO and central NM. Meanwhile, modest moisture and
orographic forcing may lead to isolated and widely scattered rain
and snow showers, and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm, Monday
afternoon through Monday night across the far northern terrain.
Rain and snowfall accumulations are expected to remain light. The
associated fropa with the disturbance will bring a stark cooldown
to Monday`s temperatures, with daytime highs reaching 7F to 15F
below Sunday`s readings.

The low ejects into the Great Plains on Tuesday, with its tight H5
pressure gradient remaining over NM in concert with the stubborn
lee-side sfc trough. This pair will allow windy conditions to
continue in the early afternoon across eastern NM. A decent
rebound will be seen on temperatures, with most locales seeing 6F
to 12F of warming compared to Monday. A secondary piece of energy
breaks off from the low`s western periphery Tuesday night, sliding
across NM and into TX on Wednesday, while a trio of upper lows
waltz across the northern CONUS. This northern activity will kick
off a gusty backdoor front down the eastern plains Wednesday
evening through Wednesday night. After temperatures achieve a
moderate rebound from Monday`s cold front, the backdoor front will
work to bring areas across the central mountains and eastward
down 10F to 20F Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

South to south southwest winds with gusts of up to 35 kts will
gradually taper off around sunset (13/02Z) but remain elevated as
an upper level shortwave moves through. The shortwave could
produce some high based showers and erratic downburst wind gusts
across the highlands of northwest NM through 13/04Z. The Airport
Weather Warning for KABQ will expire at 13/02Z. Low level
turbulence at around FL015 will continue through 13/06Z across the
central mountain chain and eastern TAF sites due to mountain wave
activity. Some low level wind shear at around FL015 is possible
across northeast TAF sites including KRTN, KCAO, and KTCC
beginning 13/04Z through around 13/10Z. Winds taper off fully
around sunrise, before increasing across eastern TAF sites at
around 13/18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM...

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER MONDAY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM...

Strong south/southwest winds, very low RH, and above normal temps
today will give way to lighter winds and fair recoveries tonight. A
slow-moving storm system approaching from the west will allow
surface winds to remain elevated thru the weekend. The latest wind
forecast trended lighter and the coverage of critical conditions is
also less than previous forecasts for Saturday and Sunday. However,
single digit RH is still likely each afternoon with poor to fair
overnight recoveries. This will be an important component in drying
out fuels ahead of a more significant fire growing pattern beginning
Monday. Widespread critical to extreme fire weather is possible on
Monday over central and eastern NM with very strong southwest to
west winds, single digit RH, and unstable conditions. Winds will
remain strong into Tuesday and Wednesday with critical conditions
possible both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  73  39  75 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  70  31  72 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  33  69  35  71 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  30  71  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35  67  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  28  72  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  32  70  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  73  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  36  69  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  29  73  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  46  76  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  30  65  31  66 /  10   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  47  70  46  70 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  38  69  39  72 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  38  64  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  28  61  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  20  62  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  29  71  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  35  69  36  73 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  39  77  40  78 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  43  71  43  72 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  40  74  41  75 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  78  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  42  80  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  78  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  38  81  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  45  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  40  79  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  43  79  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  40  80  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  45  75  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  42  77  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  45  83  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  68  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  44  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  42  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  35  74  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  69  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  42  72  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  72  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  48  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  43  68  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  39  73  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  34  76  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  35  77  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  39  72  40  75 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  45  81  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  42  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  46  84  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  43  80  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  83  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  48  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  47  85  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  46  83  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  49  89  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  80  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-
123>125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...71