140
FXAK67 PAJK 111303
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
503 AM AKDT Sat May 11 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday night / Quiet short range
forecast today as the panhandle will be in between systems through
Saturday night. Into Saturday night, clouds and rain start to
return and winds will be increasing as a new front moves in from
the west. No atmospheric river influences this time so the
rainfall should be mostly light.

Rain approaches Yakutat in the afternoon and then into the
panhandle in the evening and expected to be categorical over most
of the area around midnight.

.LONG TERM...Wet and cool weather will continue for the long term
period as low pressure continues to persist over the N gulf and
southern Interior. The front will continue to impact the area
bringing more rain to SE AK. Behind this front, we will see a
break in precipitation before the next system starts to bring
impacts to the area by late morning to early afternoon on Monday.
Behind this system, we will continue to see an active weather
continue to impact the panhandle with more rain and winds as low
pressures continue to work to the north and east from the N
Pacific. The system that is expected to impact the area by midweek
will need to be watched through the weekend as there is the
potential for some heavier than normal rainfall for the S
panhandle. Confidence in this idea is still low and will need to
be watched for potential impacts. Getting into the extended long
term, CPC guidance continues to show us still in a cooler than
normal and wetter than normal pattern as we head into the middle
to end of May.

&&

.AVIATION...Significant breaks in elevated cloud deck overnight,
especially for southern panhandle, which allowed for radiational
cooling and some fog development. Conditions should improve
quickly in such areas after sunrise, with VFR conditions over the
entirety of the panhandle Saturday before cloud cover returns
Saturday night into Sunday with the next system, lowering ceilings
from west to east and bringing some potential LLWS to northern
Gulf coast.


&&

.MARINE...Inner channels this morning are light winds up to 10 kt
and should stay on the light side increasing slightly though the
afternoon to 10 to 20 kt. A front moving through the eastern half
of the gulf will increase winds to 25 to 35 strongest near Cape
Suckling in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ319>321.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ328.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau