173
FXUS61 KAKQ 280125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
925 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore moves south early next week with a ridge
building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are
expected next week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday
night. High pressure returns by Wednesday. Precipitation chances
increase late next week into next weekend as another cold front
approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 920 PM EDT Saturday...

~1032mb high pressure remains centered offshore of Long
Island/Cape Cod this evening, with ridging extending SW into the
coastal Carolinas. A warm front also extends from the Great
Lakes region southeastward into the central VA vicinity. Temps
are generally in the low 60s for the srn half of the CWA and in
the mid-upper 50s for the nrn half. Far NW portions of the FA
remain socked under lower cloud cover and, thus, temps remain in
the lower 50s. With the earlier rain, even noting some areas of
reduced visibility from patchy fog/mist across Louisa County.
Expect this to be very transient, however. Otherwise, earlier
shower activity has diminished and satellite shows skies have
been gradually clearing. Continued clearing is expected
overnight with low temps ranging through the 50s as winds
become S-SSW with the warm front crossing the area. Also...cannot
rule out a brief shower on the MD Eastern Shore after 9z/5 AM
as a very weak perturbation clips the NE half of the FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

A ridge builds over the area early next week with a significant
warmup expected as winds become SW. Dry with (slowly) increasing
humidity. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sun with upper 80s in
most areas on Mon/Tue. Guidance has come up a couple of degrees with
respect to high temperatures early next week, and a few 90F readings
are likely on both Mon and Tue (now the NBM 50th percentile shows
90F at RIC on Mon). Lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sun and Mon
night. A weak cold front slowly approaches from the west on Tue,
with isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms initially developing
to our west during the aftn. Isolated convection potentially moves
across the area during the evening through the first part of Tue
night before weakening. Will hold PoPs no higher than 30% given the
lack of coverage and the fact that some of the models don`t have any
QPF in the FA from Tue-Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The ridge lingers over the E CONUS through much of the rest of next
week. At the surface, weak high pressure settles to our NE on
Wed/Thu in the wake of the weak front, with mainly warm/dry wx
expected (although it will be a bit cooler near the coast on both
days with the flow becoming onshore). Forecast highs are in the low-
mid 80s inland with 70s closer to the coast. Precipitation chances
increase late next week through at least Sat as the upper ridge
breaks down and a shortwave tracks from the upper Midwest to srn
Ontario/Quebec. Several shortwaves move through the area during this
time, which will result in multiple chances for showers/storms.
However, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle
features. Also, another cold front may cross the area next weekend,
and there`s quite a bit of uncertainty regarding if/when it does so.
As such, have maintained NBM PoPs (which gives 30-40% PoPs on both
Fri/Sat...highest during the aftn/evening). Highs mainly in the 80s
on Fri with a slight cool down possible by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/28 TAF period. BKN-OVC
cloud deck w/ CIGS 7000-9000 ft AGL persists this evening over
the area, though it should begin to gradually thin over the
next several hrs. S winds of 5-10 kt are expected tonight,
shifting to SSW/SW ~10 kt Sun morning and aftn. Could become a
tad gusty (20 kt) at ORF around sunrise Sun. Otherwise,
quiet/good flying wx expected Sun aftn w/ perhaps some FEW-SCT
CU (CIGs ~5000 ft).

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from
Sun through at least Tue AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Late this aftn, strong high pressure was centered just off the
nrn Mid Atlc coast. Winds were SE 5-15 kt over the waters, with
a few gusts up to 20 kt. Seas were 3-4 ft and waves were 1-3 ft.

SE winds 5-15 kt will become S tonight, as high pressure shifts
farther S to off the Mid Atlc coast. The high will then drift to
off the SE coast for Sun through Tue. With this movement, winds
become S or SW (still at 5-15 kt) through the period. During
this period, seas will be 2-4 ft and waves 1-2 ft. A front will
drop across the waters late Tue night into Wed, with winds
turning to the W then NNW. Winds will then turn back to the E
or SE for Wed evening into Thu.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/TMG