825
FXUS64 KAMA 050536 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Low clouds are trying to break up across much of the area, but
not expecting much of a warmup across the area. In fact, even the
NBM 10th percentile highs are too warm across portions of the area
that are currently cloudy. Highs today may not reach 60 degrees for
Amarillo and surrounding areas, but highs in the 60s can be expected
in the northwest and southeast where clouds are not as widespread.
Rain and embedded thunderstorms may work up to the Panhandles later
today, but thinking that they may merely clip southern or
southeasterly TX Panhandle this evening, and maybe some showers may
grace the western Panhandles. NBM seems to be running quite hot with
the PoPs again, with 50-80% across much of the area tonight. Have
significant doubts about that. As such, have dropped PoPs to 15-25%
at most for the central and northern Panhandles, while generally
leaving PoPs for the periphery of the Panhandles. Rain chances exit
the Panhandles Sunday morning.

Sunday, a large upper-level trough moves toward the Panhandles,
skies clear, 850mb temperatures warm, and surface winds turn
southerly and breezy. All of these factors point toward highs
returning to the 70s to near-80. Winds strengthen overnight to 20-30
mph with gusts up to 40 mph as a surface low develops and rapidly
strengthens in eastern Colorado.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A mostly dry forecast throughout the majority of the forecast
period. The only chances for some rain and or thunderstorms will
be on Monday and potentially on Friday. Starting on Monday, latest
04/12Z model and numerical guidance shows an occluded stacked low
pressure system over the norther High Plains. Further south
across the Panhandles, a sfc dryline will develop and with gusty
WSW sfc winds, the dryline should quickly move to the east
throughout the day. If any adjustments to the track of the main
low and/or winds behind the dryline become weaker, the dryline by
Monday afternoon may linger more in the eastern Panhandles. As of
right now the far eastern combined Panhandles will have the best
chance to stay along or east of the dryline by MOnday afternoon.
Ingredients will be there for all hazards for severe thunderstorms
potential if storms do develop. WInds behind the dryline based off
the latest probs have decreased in model runs over the past few
hours. We will still be monitoring the potential for some wind
headlines and fire weather conditions, but domain coverage could
be more limited compared to previous model runs. Highs on Monday
will range from upper 70s in the west to upper 80s in the east.

Zonal flow and dry conditions should resume through the middle of
the week for all of the Panhandles. A cold front should drop high
temperatures from above average of Tuesday and Wednesday, back to
near average by Thursday. A perturbation in H500 WNW flow may
bring a slight chance (~ 20%) to the western Panhandles by the
end of the forecast period. Highs on Friday will remain cool with
temperatures below average for early May.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

IFR conditions at AMA and MVFR conditions at DHT and GUY should
lift into the VFR range be around mid day. Winds will remain
around 10 knots or less through about mid day, then they will pick
up out of the south at 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts. Southeast
winds will then continue at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  58  83  49 /  10  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  75  56  85  46 /  10  10  20   0
Boise City OK              75  55  78  43 /  30  10   0   0
Borger TX                  78  60  87  51 /  10  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              80  59  84  46 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  75  58  83  48 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               71  58  85  52 /  20  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 76  54  80  40 /  20  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  75  56  82  44 /  10  10  10   0
Hereford TX                78  58  83  48 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                74  58  86  51 /  20  10  20   0
Pampa TX                   73  58  83  51 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                73  58  87  53 /  20  10  20   0
Wellington TX              73  58  87  52 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...15