Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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174 FXUS64 KAMA 071742 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1242 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Fire weather continues to highlight the short term forecast. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast again today for the central and western Panhandles. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the southwest on Wednesday. Highs both today and Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s to upper 80s. Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies across the Panhandles early this morning. Winds out of the west are continuing this morning which is continuing to bring dry air in across the area. Dew points at the time of this writing have only increased into the mid to upper teens for most areas with some locations (portions of the OK Panhandle and the eastern TX Panhandle) having dew points in the 20s to low 30s. With that being said, very poor relative humidity recovery is expected this morning for the region. Heading into the daytime hours today, zonal flow aloft will prevail across the forecast area. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to tighten again across the area by late morning and will continue into the afternoon hours. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely across the central and west this afternoon. With continued dry air moving in from the west, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will arise once again today (for more fire weather details, see the Fire Weather discussion below). WAA at H850 is forecast for today with the temperatures rising into the mid teens celsius, this would lead to highs in the 80s area wide for this afternoon. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight into early Wednesday morning. Cooler highs temperatures are forecast for Wednesday but will still be in the 70s and 80s as the airmass behind the front is not all that cold. Breezy winds will be possible across the southwest and dry conditions will persist, so elevated fire weather conditions will still be possible for this area. Otherwise, Wednesday into Wednesday night looks to remain quiet weather wise with a secondary cold front moving across the Plains during the overnight hours. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Dry weather will continue Thursday through Friday night as another upper level low pressure system organizes and centers over the vicinity of southern Nevada by late Friday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms may return to the region Saturday afternoon through Monday as the aforementioned upper level low pressure system moves slowly eastward. Precipitation amounts and areal coverage will depend on how much moisture returns to the area this weekend into early next week. For now, the NBM slight chance to low end chance pops look reasonable this far out in time and were included in the grids for Saturday through Monday. Medium range models and associated ensembles were in some semblance of agreement with differences noted in the finer details surrounding orientation and timing of this next upper level storm system. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Changing wind speeds and direction at the surface will be the primary focus for this new TAF period, as the flight category is not expected to change from VFR for the next 24 hours. Strong, southwesterly winds are forecast to begin this afternoon and will peak near 20Z. Winds will decrease later on tonight and change directions after a surface front moves through all terminal sites. Light northerly winds are anticipated behind the front heading into the morning hours. Rangel && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again today for the central and western Panhandles. Southwest winds this afternoon are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph. Relative humidity values will once again drop below 10 percent for most of the area during peak heating today. These conditions will lead to RFTI values in the 4 to 8 range, with the higher values across the west. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through the evening hours. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the northeastern Texas Panhandle and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. For Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the southwestern Texas Panhandle due to low relative humidity values around 10 percent or less and west winds with gusts up to 30 mph. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 48 81 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 47 78 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 41 75 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Borger TX 49 83 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 45 83 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 48 82 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 52 82 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 39 78 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 43 77 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 48 83 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 51 80 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 48 80 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 53 82 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 53 83 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>003- 006>008-011>013-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...55